Mickey Mouse, please help us!

If we look at it objectively, there seem to be few things that are as important for the future of the oil industry of Venezuela as is the development of Orimulsion. Likewise, there are few places in the world with which Venezuela has closer ties than to Florida. On the 24th of June 1998, the State of Florida, without valid fundamental reasons, ratified its prohibition on the use of Orimulsion for its power generation.

We have thereby received an insolent and costly slap in the face. Venezuelans, however, continue to pack their bags to go spend their money on vacations in Florida as if nothing had happened. In my opinion, this simply proves that there is a total absence of the only ingredient necessary to confront and solve the difficult situation our country is in, that is, a sense of patriotism.

As a youngster, I participated in parades in honor of national holidays which promoted the concept of a nation by singing hymns and waving flags. I don’t complain about this, on the contrary, I’m proud and grateful for it. Times change, however, and I’m not sure we want to exaggerate with the parade issue if we wish to give our children the best of all gifts, the pride of belonging to a country, of being a Venezuelan.

Orimulsion is a product invented and produced in Venezuela, and it can be attributed both mythical as well as real elements and characteristics. I therefore believe it is possible to develop a campaign of national identity around it. In this sense (although technically incorrect) it should be enough to visualize images of energy and power bubbling up from the turbulent waters of the Orinoco to the sound of Enya's "Orinoco Flow".

I realize that I am running the risk of being accused of patriotic mumbling and many would ask me what we would do with national pride anyhow. The answer is obvious. We would be able to show the world that Venezuela, more than a simple geographical presence, represents a community of wills and desires that should be respected as such.

I am absolutely sure that Venezuela would be a country with a bright future should all of our youngsters react against Florida’s decision by threatening to cancel trips to Disney World and asking their parents to take their “cheap, give me two” shopping sprees elsewhere.

What worries me even more is the fact that this national apathy towards Florida’s prohibition on Orimulsion comes in the face of a widespread cry for declaring a national emergency due to the drastic fall in world oil prices. As an example of this silence, it is enough to note that the discreet protests emanating from the Venezuelan American Chamber of Commerce (VenAmCham), the only entity that would conceivably have the right to a pained silence, surpass those of the Congress, Fedecamaras, the CTV, universities and presidential candidates.

In today’s world, it has become evident that public opinion is a strong weapon that can be effectively used to obtain favorable results from international commercial negotiations. For good or bad, we are generally not amazed, for example, by the exaggerated advantages awarded agriculture in Europe because we recognize the power of public opinion wielded by this sector.

We have given Bitor and its management (a black box to most) the responsibility of negotiating an issue of utmost importance to the country without giving them either the support of powerful groups that could conceivably promote a strong lobby nor the support of solid public opinion to which they could make reference. This is infantile, and what happened was simply bound to happen.

When I broached the subject to my young daughters, specially the part of not going to Disney World, there seemed to be an immediate backlash since they thought I was insinuating that Mickey was responsible for our troubles. Harmony returned when I explained, however, that what we should really be doing is writing to Mickey to ask him to help us, since without Orimulsion there is no money and without money we cannot continue to visit him.

Harmony could also return to Venezuela if we manage to unite everyone around sacrifices that make real sense such as: defending Orimulsion at all costs; imposing emergency duties to avoid total atrophy of our possibilities of creating internal jobs markets and; prioritizing investments within the country.

If on the contrary we: a) ignore Florida’s slap in the face; b) continue to permit the contraband in our ports, thereby guaranteeing job places in other countries; c) keep building (mostly with public funds) gasoline stations in the face of a lack of schools; d) continue to base emergency plans on the collection of additional taxes in order to finance the indolence of others; and e) take on additional debt which will have to be repaid by our grandchildren, there will be no country left to harmonize.

Unfortunately, should this occur, I will have no other choice but to suggest to my children that they should quit seeing Mickey as a source of recreation and look at him as a future boss, as many compatriots who have had to leave the country actually consider him already. Let’s take advantage of Orimulsion and consolidate ourselves as a nation.

http://petropolitan.blogspot.com/1998/07/mickey-mouse-please-help-us.html

Let's, all whakapohane!

I remember having read a few years back about one particular method used by the Maori of New Zealand to protest about something that bothered them. This method consists of lining up a group of Maori tribesmen, turning their backs towards the person or persons that are the target of the protest, dropping their trousers and showing them their naked backsides. This rite is named Whakapohane. 

Without delving further into this tradition, and in spite of the fact that it seems primitive and is most certainly an ugly spectacle, I think it could be also classified as a civilized and most efficient way to protest. Civilized because it does no damage to anyone or anything (except to those people with a well-developed sense of esthetics) and efficient because it manages to consolidate into one single act and gesture all the sense we could possibly assign to a real social sanction.

There is no doubt that we are often frustrated at not being able to find a way to vehemently protest about the stupid, naive and criminal behavior that negatively affects our country on a daily basis.

The idea of putting together a group of citizens, family men, professionals and white-collar workers with briefcases and ties and heading out to the street to shamelessly whakapohane any deserving person is appealing. Consider the following:

What has been demonstrated without doubt over the past decades in Venezuela is an utter incapacity by government to manage its resources. The International Monetary Fund, for example, predicates that the solution to Venezuela's problems can be found by giving government even more resources to squander by way of increased taxes (as if our oil income wasn't enough taxation).

Clearly, the IMF deserves an act of Whakapohane from our citizens. 

Banking charters are usually awarded in order for them to participate actively in the development of the country's economy.

It is not enough for them to simply return the funds they have received on deposit, since if this were so, it would be better to simply buy a good mattress and put it into a large safe.

There are still many who think it is best to be puritan and to simply continue to tighten the screws on financial solvency of banks without paying attention to the real purpose of banking institutions These people deserve a solid Whakapohane.

There are many national authorities that evidently are aware of the damage to economies that short-term capital flows can cause, and also know that other countries have put workable legislation into place to limit these damages.

They cannot be bothered to take the 48 hours required to simply copy this legislation and enact it in Venezuela. There is no doubt that these authorities deserve to be Whakapohaned.

Those people related to the oil sector that have not been able to either see or warn the country about the possibility of a fall in world oil prices, who, in spite of arguing in favor of conquering new markets, run for cover behind OPEC's skirts when confronted with adverse situations, and who continue to invest scarce resources in projects of low significance such as the expansion of our gasoline stations' capacity to sell snacks, should certainly be offered a great Whakapohane.

Many illustrious representatives of the private sector applauded the privatization of CANTV, without realizing that it was all an elaborate trick perpetrated by the government to collect taxes in advance which we now have to cover through exaggerated service charges. These guys are due a good Whakapohane.

Those die-hard defenders of free trade who simply do not understand that in a globalized world economy each country must, when the chips are down, defend itself and guarantee a minimum internal level of employment should be urgently Whakapohaned.

The entire political and economic system is based on centralized income and decentralized personal apparatchiks.

Members of this system have not been able to come up with a real solution to our problems and should be considered traitors.

They should all be paraded to La Carlota Airport and given the Mother of all Whakapohanes .

We have heard that one of the people most clearly and widely questioned in our recent history is due to return to Venezuela after statutes of limitations have expired.

Just imagine what a marvelous message a small delegation of our "notables" dispatched down to Maiquetía to receive that person with a mini-Whakapohane would send. 

We should definitely not lightly discard the possibility of introducing an ancestral aboriginal custom from New Zealand in to the Venezuelan political scheme . 

Whakapohaners of the world, unite! The alternative are much worse.

Spanish translation

The first version was a blue one

Then, I don't know when... some applied the original concept

Pay now and pray for the light

Over the years, the nation’s public sector has slowly but surely built up a relatively widespread infrastructure base. This was evidently financed basically by income from petroleum sales. Among these infrastructure systems we can find the Nueva Esparta State power and energy system (SENE). Today’s cash crunch has forced the government to study the possible sale of SENE by its owner, i.e. the Venezuelan Investment Fund (FIV), hoping thereby to recoup its investment.

SENE’s value today, as a power concession, is based more on the cash flows that are derived from the tariffs, than on the value of a bunch of electrical baggage. As a result of this, the FIV, in its role as seller, is interested in proving to potential buyers that there is a real possibility of charging high tariffs for its electricity.

FIV’s spokesmen have pegged SENE’s value in the market at US$ 100 million. Should this actually be the final value of the sale/purchase transaction, the island’s population, industry and commerce, whether they like it or not, will have to repay the investment, including corresponding dividends, by way of increased tariffs. The same happened with CANTV. Today’s high phone bills are a direct result of the elevated price paid the government by the investors that acquired the communications monopoly.

In the case of the Margarita power system, we must add the investments that are urgently required in order to provide satisfactory service to users on the island to the initial investment. The result is evident; a horrifyingly high electricity bill.

Any privatization of a public service should be aimed at insuring that a continuous and acceptable service is made available to its users, at a reasonable cost. On the contrary, the SENE privatization looks like a totally different concept, one in which the sale is used cover up ulterior fiscal necessities. This is clearly evidenced by the fact that the allocation will be made to that bidder that “offers the highest price, on strictly cash terms and without any financing from the Venezuelan State”.

On the FIV’s Web Page on the Internet, the agency declares that: “As far as the supply of primary energy to the before mentioned Island is concerned, the Economic Cabinet has decided that the winning bidder must present the National Executive, after the public bid, and no later than six months after the same, with an investment plan detailing the minimum cost associated with the delivery of the service, which must in turn reflect the tariffs to be applied”.

The above declaration, could in the layman’s terms be interpreted as saying “Pay us now and let us know within six months what you are going to do with regards to the Islands needs”. As such it would confirm the existing fiscal voracity and the general indifference of authorities with Margarita’s well being. I am one of the most arduous defenders of privatization around, and therefore I hereby express my most vehement protest.

In this same context, another example of fiscal voracity related to the Island’s needs is the gas pipeline. This alternative was never designed to include the possibility whereby the owner of the gas (Corpoven) would have to lay the pipeline in order to insure sales of the gas to Margarita. On the contrary, this alternative was always based on the scheme whereby the island was to pay for the pipeline in order to acquire the “right” to purchase the gas (nice guys, what?). Most assuredly, as instructed by the IMF, the price of this gas is to be pegged to international market levels.

Everyone is well aware that the energy problems on the Island must be solved, and quickly. I have been one of the victims of burnt-out compressors, rotten food in my refrigerator, etc, and therefore am among the first to assert that the costliest service is the bad one or worse, the one you don’t receive at all. However, I do believe that celerity is not incompatible with intelligence.

Before allowing the Venezuelan State to get rid of SENE and therefore of a responsibility, which it had taken upon itself voluntarily in the first place, in the search for political benefit, Nueva Esparta should request authorities to lay a submarine cable that would allow it to purchase cheap hydroelectric power from Edelca. This it is done in most other parts of the country, even in more remote areas such as the State of Zulia. We had also planned to do the same with exports of power to Brazil and Colombia. Why, then, not Margarita?

As a minimum, the Island should try to ensure that all income raised by the sale of SENE should be deposited in an escrow account aimed at financing sorely needed investments on the Island.

If I were president (II)

In yesterday’s installment I mentioned the fact that the first thing I must receive in order to responsibly comply with my presidential obligations are certain special powers. Supposing I actually received these powers, I then began to list some of the concrete measures as an example of what I would do during the first 100 days of my term in some specific areas of concern. Here are some more.

Education: A single, all encompassing data base must be put together, identifying each and every active teacher on a school-by-school basis. These teachers will immediately receive an increase in pay and an additional fixed percentage of the payroll amount will be awarded each school to cover administrative expenses. Evidence of false information will result in the immediate suspension (for lying, aiding or abetting) of all the teachers of that particular school. All others that are unduly receiving pay without working from the Ministry of Education will be awarded eternal vacations without pay.

Reduction of public spending: In order to rationalize public spending, as similar strategy as the one above will be implemented. All personnel that are to be dismissed will be paid the equivalent of three month’s salary and all other severance payments will be paid in the form of negotiable Public Sector Restoion Bonds (PSRB). The value of these bonds will increase in the measure that restoration of the public sector is successful.

Infrastructure: All savings from the restructuring process will be invested, after covering fiscal deficits over 3% of GNP, in infrastructure projects, such as energy and water for Margarita and Zulia and a truly nationwide railway system.

Housing: The Central Bank must immediately make available through the private banking system, a credit facility to the tune of US$ 2 billion aimed at issuing long term loans in US$ and fixed rates for acquisition of housing.

Foreign investment: Foreign capital investments will be regulated in order to minimize damage caused by short term capital flight (i.e., the Mexico syndrome). Other countries in Latin America have such regulations in place.

Economic diversification: The oil sector does not create employment. Venezuela’s commercial policies must be renegotiated to achieve the equilibrium of our trade balance in terms of employment generation and not balance in monetary terms as it stands now. An annual budget will be allotted to allow for the protection of certain sectors of the economy, specifically agriculture. Cover under this scheme will be allocated to those sectors within agriculture that we can be competitive in without excessive costs (i.e. rice rather than apples).

Petroleum/Petrochemicals: PDVSA will continue to manage the development of our petroleum industry. However, a special Office of the Petroleum Ombudsman (OPO) will be created. This will allow the common citizen to get closer and to increase his knowledge and control of what is the country’s principal asset. The members of this office will be elected at random from among a list of candidates that have been carefully screened, have complied with some basic requirements and have been presented as such by the Venezuelan people. The Office will be initially asked to analyze why the industry is spending its precious resources in rebuilding a slew of gas stations. In the same sense, I would like to insure that our petrochemical industry is not just reopening Sidor’s covered grave with its new investments.

Taxes/Duties: There will be no more value added tax (VAT) as long as the country continues to perceive significant income from oil. Customs at our ports will be handed over to the private sector management. This will ensure that income that should reach government accounts does not continue to feed unscrupulous individual pockets.

Superfluous functions: Until the State begins to perfectly comply with its responsibilities in fundamental areas such as education, health and security, all other superfluous functions will be suspended. For example: if the local stock market really needs a regulatory entity such as the National Security and Exchange Commission, the market must cover the costs incurred. Today, it is preferable to stamp each issue with the words “Beware – Not Regulated” than to create the false illusion that some control is imposed, and in some instances, actually abet fraud through simple omission.

Day 100 – Evaluation: If my team and I are not able to successfully implement our government’s plans, we must resign and convene new elections. Remember, I have initially made a promise to resign without pension and without a seat as Senator for life in order to avoid a) further degeneration of the stature of the office of the President and b) wasting another four years and nine months of this poor country’s destiny.

If I were president (I)

I have been writing articles that have been published in the Daily Journal for almost one year now. I realize that most (although not all) have been quite critical. As a result, I have been the target for calls from acquaintances who ask me things like “quit criticizing so much; what would you do­?” I herewith try to answer these questions. This is the first of two parts, the second of which will appear in tomorrow’s issue.

Upon contemplating the current state of affairs, it is evident that we urgently need to restructure everything (or almost everything), and that the latter should probably be much more radical than what our official presidential candidates imagine or would dare talk about. The following would be my agenda for the first 100 days, were I to sit in Miraflores as President of Venezuela.

Day 1 / Morning: There would be a very simple swearing-in ceremony that would not be attended by visiting dignitaries. At least 50% of the attendees to this ceremony would be young people, less than 18 years old. Immediately thereafter there would be an emergency session of Congress during which Venezuela would be declared in a state of emergency, a state that is in perfect sync with reality. Emergency powers that would allow the President to confront such a situation would be requested. These powers would be similar to those awarded anyone out to perform a salvage operation and without which nobody reasonably sane could be expected to assume the responsibility of restructuring our country.

During this same session, Congress must approve a Bond issue under the acronym Public Sector Restoration Bonds (PSRB). These bonds are to be 30-year instruments, US Dollar denominated and carrying interest rates similar to those paid by the United States. These resources will be used to liquidate public payrolls. Immediately thereafter, two constitutional reforms should take place as follows:

First Amendment: A total reform of the mechanisms that are used to elect Judges. Any of the many projects that have been tabled recently can be used, most of which are useful but none of which have found their way to implementation.

Second Amendment: A total ban on any new net foreign indebtedness for the public sector (including PDVSA). In addition, the country must accept the obligation to amortize a minimum of 1/30th of the current global debt annually. Venezuela’s current oil income should be sufficient to cover all public sector spending. If it is not, the government is being inefficient and the last thing we should be doing is accepting further a heavier debt load.

Day 1 / Evening: Should Congress balk at these requests, I, as National Executive must strive with all available means, including that of closing Congress, to achieve the reforms. Should this still not be enough, I would immediately offer my resignation and convene new elections. This would avoid a) further degeneration of the stature of the office of the President and b) the wasting of another five years of the country’s destiny.

Days 2 through 99: We would initiate a series of emergency measures aimed at the reorientation of our nation’s destiny. As an example, among these would be the following:

Social Security: A single central system would be put into place to implement the payment of pensions for public sector employees. The regulations for this would establish that a) the minimum and maximum payment amounts; the maximum cannot be more that three times the minimum; b) any pensioner that is eligible for various pensions can add them up until he reaches the maximum established; c) payments will be made in strict inverse order, that is, the lower payments will be handled before the higher ones; no way will we pay out millions while our grandparents (los viejitos) have to take to the streets; d) we will unify, downwards if necessary, the pension amounts to be received by retired people of the same category and seniority; we will not differentiate between teachers with 30 years’ seniority that retired in 1976 from those retired in 1996.

If all of this means that some current obligations are not covered, so be it. Remember, the country has been declared in a state of emergency. The default of these obligations will be explained face-to-face, and not as it has been done until today, by hiding behind the curtain of inflation.

Government team: The government’s duties will be executed by a multidisciplinary team, small enough to be housed in one building. We will initiate the relocation of Congress and the administrative and clerical functions of government other cities in Venezuela.

Part II will follow tomorrow with more examples of my government’s agenda.

To resign or not to resign

Venezuela has continually seen its hopes and illusions for a better future crushed as a consequence of the traditional argument used by our leaders which translated literally goes something like “we were not allowed to govern nor did the conditions to govern exist”. Unfortunately, our governors usually are illuminated with this realization towards the end of their tenure, after they have confiscated five years of national destiny.

Today, all presidential candidates coincide that profound structural reforms must be implemented in order to make this country governable. The sectors that most require these reforms are the judicial system and education. What differs are the candidates’ ideas as to how to go about putting these reforms into place. Methods range from calling for dissolution of congress and rewriting the constitution, to a series of nationwide agreements and consensus.

Not one of the candidates has offered us his or her formal stance on what he or she would do should the reforms required to ensure governability not be effectively applied.

Any reasonably sensible person to whom a specific mission has been assigned (or awarded) would immediately specify and enumerate the resources he will require to successfully complete his duties. Should these resources not be available or in effect be revoked during the course of the mission, this person would either not accept or resign from the latter.

I am not a politician, but if someone asked me to hypothetically elaborate my five-year plan for government, I would definitely have to include the possibility of resigning my post as an integral component of the same. Should I actually have to do so, I would say “I made my promises based on the presumed existence of certain resources; these were not made available; no problem; I’ll go home; I’m certainly not going to make a fool of myself”. The problem is, however, that with such an honorable withdrawal I would, in the eyes of most of our current politicians, be doing exactly that, making a fool of myself.

In parliamentary systems which require a government to form a coalition in order to insure a majority, in countries with electoral processes that require a second round should the first not guarantee any candidate an outright majority and, in effect, in any country with solid two-party systems, governments normally request, and get, a minimum amount of resources required in order to govern.

This evidently is not valid in Venezuela. There must be few countries in which a government is allowed to take power democratically based on the votes of only 18% of the electorate. The current government was put into place after receiving a 30% share of the votes of 60% of the eligible voters.

If as an eligible voter I would wish to introduce reforms to the electoral system, they would apply to exactly that issue. We should find a scheme that allows us, democratically and without undue stress and trauma, to shorten the tenure of any government that shows an evident incapacity to comply with its promises. I consider that to oblige any government to necessarily ride out its five-year term is undue cruelty, both for the governors as well as for the governed.

I will listen very closely then, to the promises and plans of our candidates before I decide for whom to vote in December. This time around, I will also listen very closely to catch any offers to resign should they not comply with the same.

If a lack of availability of promised resources is a logical reason for resigning, then so should be the failure of implemented policies. The way in which our politicians are allowed to pave over their mistakes by making 180-degree reversals in their policies without so much as offering to hand over the keys is embarrassing. There is no doubt that the valiant cry emanating from our war for independence, “vuelvan caras”, today would definitely refer to another part of the anatomy.

It is strange that those that are most hung up on their positions and have consistently ignored their option to resign are usually those that make the most hoopla out of their “resignations” upon actually being fired. It is also strange to note that those that resist any thought of manly resignation are the first to jump ship when the latter begins to take on water

Treading deeper into red

As we all know by now, PDVSA has recently managed to successfully float a bond issue for US$ 1.8 billion in the international financial markets. Mr. Giusti, its President, as well as some external market analysts maintain that PDVSA’s asset base is immense while its debt load is relatively small. According to all of them, the company should be in a position to use more leverage.

As a Venezuelan citizen, father of three other Venezuelan citizens and therefore, at least in theory, a minority shareholder of PDVSA, I must admit that rarely have declarations by “people in the know” caused me so much anguish.

Venezuela used to be the target of the international financial community due to the existence of vast oil sector assets and reserves that ranked us among the wealthy nations of the world. This resulted in the contracting of loans that ultimately resulted in our overbearing external debt load. These resources have been poorly managed and have definitely not contributed to the well being of the country.

Should PDVSA now go out and contract debt and issue liens or mortgages on our petroleum assets without insuring that the resources obtained thereby are used to repay debt previously acquired, we are condemning the country to total ruin.

Evidently we all know about the fiscal bind we are in as a consequence of the fall in world oil prices. It is easy to argue in favor of new indebtedness as a transitory way of squaring our national accounts when the alternatives are 1) inflation as a result of fiscal deficits or 2) deepening recession due to an effort to balance the before-mentioned fiscal accounts.

What is not, and cannot, be permissible is to allow PDVSA to take over roles corresponding specifically to the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank. The nation also cannot allow the evasion, via PDVSA, of the few instruments still in place, which allow us to control national debt levels.

Until now, I figured there was a great national consensus about the need to keep PDVSA’s balance sheet basically free of liabilities. The evidence seemed to be there. To begin with, PDVSA’s current debt doesn’t reach US$ 4 billion. On top of this, the Oil Opening was justified on the basis of a lack of resources available in PDVSA for future expansion. Evidently, the company’s debt capacity was not taken into account then.

We can also clearly remember that during all the restructuring processes undertaken by Venezuela in the past and which finally resulted in the Brady Bond issues, any alternative which was to involve PDVSA’s assets in one way or another as a basis for the restructuring was rejected outright.

We feel that something seems to have changed. From one day to the next, we are told that an offshore company, PDV Finance, has been set up to facilitate the assignation of accounts receivable or to undertake factoring transactions. At the same time, we understand that Mr. Giusti has expressed his surprise at PDVSA’s capacity for leverage. This cannot possibly surprise anybody expect those that have never even contemplated it.

We remember that a few months back, when the Brady Bond swap came to light, we were witnesses to the debate related to the application of the Law of Public Credit. For a smaller amount, many protested the fact that Congress was not properly and directly consulted. Today’s silence, then, is outright baffling.

I sincerely hope, for the sake of my country, that things have really not changed radically and that someone has not decided to take the stick to the PDVSA piñata.

Some analysts have gone on record as saying that PDVSA qualifies for loans at lower interest rates, and that the country therefore has a good deal going. I remind these analysts, however, that the true final cost of any debt transaction depends on what the resources are actually used for. In this sense, our governments have been masters at converting even the most generous loans into expensive ones through sheer wastefulness.

I remind those that console themselves with the fact that the resources made available by this new debt are aimed exclusively at covering PDVSA internal requirements how fungible these resources really are. For example, the US$ 2 billion raised by the oil opening, which should theoretically have been applied towards PDVSA’s investment program, were really spent on our central “dis-administration’s” unproductive payrolls. If this permeability becomes a habit, we are merely allowing them to dig all of us deeper into the hole.

Therefore, as a Venezuelan, I also remind Mr. Giusti and his other co-Directors that their function is to be the custodians of Venezuela’s riches. Their function is not to raise the specter of generous credit lines and basically act as a croupier or as a Maecenas to the government of turn.

Learning to appreciate

It is absolutely incredible. There is no anthropologist who understands it. Ours is a nation that dedicates serious effort to the art of national, religious, pagan and other such festivities. However, there is absolutely no mention of any holiday, not even a minor municipal one somewhere out in the wilds of Venezuela, to celebrate what undoubtedly must be the most important single object for the nation, its reserves of black gold.

The magazine Debates IESA recently published an article in which, precisely to create food for thought and debate, I tackle the subject of oil. I forward the possibility that our usual habit of labeling oil as something bad and disagreeable, to the point of actually calling what in most other nations would be considered to be God’s gift, the devil’s excrement, is simply part of an intelligent plot to cover up mistakes and avoid a severe audit of accounts.

While oil income continues to be considered “dirty” and has not been channeled through our pockets as ordinary citizens in order to avoid soiling or corrupting us, we will not give any importance to the efficiency with which the administrators to which we have delegated the task of handling these resources actually go about it. It would be another story, however, if this oil income would be considered squeaky clean and be the object of devout attention every Sunday at mass.

I ask you to reflect on the value of an educational program that would instill in even the poorest child the need to a) thank God for the Bs. 200,000 of oil income that would correspond to every single Venezuelan citizen (and which all of us have subrogated to the government in 1997), and b) to assume direct responsibility for its clean and correct administration.

Tongue in cheek aside, I am an economist and have a Master’s Degree in Business Administration. During my career if have learned, and taught, the basic precept that the most important step required in order to develop a solution to a problem is the clear identification of the resources you have on hand. Here, the opposite seems true. Colleagues, social planning gurus, VIPs and other such well-intentioned people seem to insist on preaching a model based on the theory that Venezuela should try to ignore its oil income. Something like supposing we decide that we should really be leaving the oil underground and immediately thereafter begin praying one hundred “ceteris paribus” to compensate for the fact that we continue pumping it anyhow.

Our oil income continues to exist, and all the efforts being undertaken under the umbrella of the oil sector opening seem to be aimed an increasing the same. In light of this reality, I propose in my article the thesis that maybe the best model for Venezuela is exactly a rentier one.

Many people would label this as heresy, but I steadfastly maintain that in my opinion, a rentier model has nothing to do with having a laid-back attitude or being a vagabond. On the contrary. A rentier model obligates us not only to save, but also to develop solid characters in order to assume the responsible management of our wealth to the benefit of future generations.

For example, experts from multilateral agencies and, of course, politicians thirsting for more resources to spend, seem to be basing their advice on models which are closer to being sado-masochistic than macro-economic. They advise us to completely ignore the horrifying experience we have been subjected to by our State administrators and to continue, in the name of fiscal deficit reduction, to pump more and more resources into our leaky fiscal system.

In stark contrast to this, we can well imagine the simple wisdom of the rentier model often used in the private sector and which motivates the owner of a company to cut off his capital contributions and avoid future indebtedness at all cost should his manager prove to be a useless failure after having misused the company’s resources.

I think, therefore, that an honest and simple application of a rentier model would allow us to identify with more clarity the true comparative advantages upon which to base Venezuela’s real development and which would in turn generate employment commensurate with our reality as an oil producing country.

Maybe then we could escape the mortal trap we have fallen into as a country by assuming that in order to initiate development we must substitute the traditional mix of incentives such as low prices for energy, communications and fertilizers with a salary structure almost comparative to a banana republic.

Certainly, it is not ethical to be poor rentiers and to throw out our income in order to work with the sweat of our brows. It would be ethical and logical to simply become excellent rentiers.

The shameful lack of housing

A young Venezuelan recently spoke with satisfaction and pride about how he had managed, after only eight months in the United States, to purchase his own home. He could finally enjoy his privacy and consolidate his married life. Unfortunately, he had to work in New York City cleaning bathrooms, but what else could he do? For the previous five years in Venezuela, after graduating as an engineer together with his wife, he had not even managed to scrape together the minimal down payment required to purchase an apartment.

It is difficult to fathom the accumulation of errors required to create a scenario in which young educated people from an oil rich nation with all the advantages of a tropical climate must immigrate to a country with a hostile winter in order to solve their housing problems. A country’s reserves are not those sitting in the Central Bank, but rather its people, especially after they have invested in a decent education. Today, our Central Bank is raising interest rates in order to keep its dollar reserves. Today, our young human reserves are leaving in droves.

A home is a long-term investment. It is not a vehicle, a trip to some Caribbean isle or a new double-breasted suit. A home for the normal citizen, who lives from his work and savings, is an investment that he hopes to amortize in 20 or 30 years if all goes well. In order to allow a young couple to acquire a home it is necessary to provide them with a real and sustainable source of long-term financing. The key words here are “real” and “sustainable”.

In Venezuela, the conditions for local currency loans are non-existent. To begin with, there is absolutely no possibility to establish fixed interest rates for a long-term Bolívar loan. Either interest rates are so high in real terms that it becomes virtually impossible to service the loan. Or they are too low, which effectively results in undeserved subsidies, which in turn threaten the very existence of the financial system as a whole.

In the case of loans with variable interest rates, the erosion of value due to inflation is usually covered with an increase in the interest rates. This makes the term of a 20- or 30-year loan, whether documented as such or not, a tasteless joke.

Let us take a closer look at this. If inflation rises to 40%, interest rates more than likely will be pegged at around 50%. Should a young couple manage to qualify for a Bs. 10 million loan for a 20-year term, they would need to raise Bs. 5 million to cover interest payments and Bs. 500,000 to cover amortization of principal on an annual basis. After one-year elapses (if they survive) they still owe Bs. 9.5 million. This amount, adjusted for 40% inflation is only worth Bs. 6.8 million in real terms (Bs. 9.5 million divided by 1 plus the inflation rate). Our young couple in essence has amortized the sum of Bs. 500,000 plus the amount corresponding to this adjustment, that is, Bs. 2.7 million. This has absolutely no relation with a 20-year term.

Other countries plagued by inflation have looked for solutions to this problem by denominating loans in indexed units. In this case, the debtor would owe Bs. 13.3 million instead of Bs. 9.5 million after the first year (Bs. 9.5 million plus inflation of 40%). However, instead of having to pay Bs. 5.5 million to service the loan as in our first example, service would have been limited to Bs. 1.5 million corresponding to a 10% real interest rate and the payment of a real amortization of Bs. 500,000.

Evidently, another alternative to indexed units is the denomination of loans in a stable currency, US dollars for example. Even when devaluation could possibly wreak havoc with debt service in the short term, a working person could most likely weather this and adequately service his dollar loan if and when it is contracted under prudent terms. When contracting a dollar denominated loan, a company or bank must immediately reflect exchange losses on their balance sheets. In the case of our young couple, the impact is limited to higher monthly payments which he could eventually expect to offset with inflation adjusted increases in his salary.

It is a shame that a full 15 years after the initial devaluation in 1983, we have not managed to reestablish sources of long-term financing for acquisition of housing. The fact that the Agenda Venezuela does not include a real and concerted effort directed at solving the problem of housing only serves to reinforce my belief that my daughters’ respective agendas have much more meaning.

I hope to stay in Venezuela. Somehow, I feel I would definitely prefer to remain here accompanied by many young, eager and educated people dedicated to the country’s future and without one single dollar in the Central Bank, rather than the other way around.

The Petroleum Ombudsman revisited

Almost one year ago, I published an articled titled “The Petroleum Ombudsman”. In this article I raised the need to institutionalize the figure of a qualified entity that could satisfy the requirements of the Venezuelan citizens of objective and independent information and analysis related to the country’s oil industry.

At that time, my observations were initially driven by a desire to know what effects on the industry the vast restructuring of PDVSA’s organization would have. In my opinion, there was a risk of centralization of the company.

Today, upon reviewing the myriad of questions PDVSA’s actions have raised in the Venezuelan society over the past year, I am even more convinced that the matter of the ombudsman for the petroluem sector must pass from being a mere suggestion to being an outright and urgent requirement. Let us see some examples:

The Oil Opening was justified by a lack of availability of resources to continue PDVSA’s investment plans. All of the funds raised by the opening, however, went directly into the Nation’s fiscal coffers. Who can explain that?

Without the slightest remorse, the National Executive requested that PDVSA withhold or delay payment of its obligations to local suppliers in an effort to further fight inflationary pressures, thereby becoming just another poor payer. Could this have been the beginning of an interesting swap aimed at sending Mr. Giusti to the Central Bank in return for Dr. Casas?

We are continually bombarded by adds in the press, selling courses and seminars to be dictated by an educational affiliate denominated PDVSA Cied. One single session, from 8 AM to 5 PM costs Bs. 300,000, an evident divorce from the economic realities of the country. When was PDVSA authorized by the country to expand its scope of activities in this manner?

Everyone has been made aware of the dangers of lead in gasoline. The solution for this seems to be of lesser importance than the revamping of an immense amount of service stations which, in addition to dispensing gasoline, are also to sell snacks. Who establishes investment priorities?

If any market is to be considered a captive client for PDVSA, it should be the Venezuelan one. I find it difficult to visualize a supertanker from the gulf trying to pass gasoline through our port authorities with the aim of selling me the concept “Put a camel in your tank”. If this is so, and if PDVSA truly is short of resources, on what basis can they announce a plan to invest US$ 800 million over the next nine years in order to improve their service station network. Why aren’t these resources invested in countries who’s markets we should be conquering?

And while we are talking of PDV, how much did the changes in image and the marketing of a new logo and trademark cost us?

And speaking of logos and trademarks, I haven’t seen any of the large oil companies now coming into Venezuela to participate in the local markets make these changes in order to compete in our environment. In a world of global markets, global coherence would seem to be important. We are all aware of the PDVSA’s important participation in the US markets through its holdings in the CITGO network. Why, then, don’t we support this trademark and market it in Venezuela as well?

By raising these questions, I don’t wish to give the impression that I argue in favor of the Petroleum Ombudsman only to supervise PDVSA. It is also important to note that this office could also launch a vigorous defense of the industry’s interests at times when fiscal pressures are brought to bear by the National Executive. These pressures could ultimately lead to further indebtedness and/or endanger our goose of the golden eggs in many other ways.

If anyone still harbors doubts as to the need for the office of this ombudsman, it should be enough to reflect on the confusion and ado created by the question as to whether PDVSA has or has not legally complied with is fiscal obligations.

PDVSA is a State owned company, headed by Directors and Management designated by the State. We should therefore be able to expect a certain confidence an adherence by the same with the norms handed down by the State. If this were not so, it would seem to indicate a much more serious problem, one that cannot be solved merely by establishing a special SENIAT office within PDVSA.

A worthy election volunteer

By Per and M.C. Kurowski

Chapter One: I recently had the opportunity to travel to a country in Central America with widespread poverty. The airplane I was on carried at least 30 young Americans, all of them between 16 and 18 years old. They belonged to one of the Peace Corp´s programs I did not even know still existed. Upon arriving at the local airport, I watched them load their gear onto a truck and head off, facing two years of hard labor in the interior of the country. Without delving into matters of cost-benefit ratios of this enterprise, I must confess that this evidently well-intentioned and healthy volunteer effort moved me deeply.

Chapter Two: I returned home from my trip to Central America and was promptly hit by press reports about the costs involved in our election process. Most of these costs were to related to services that, should democracy really mean something, could easily be supplied by well-intentioned and healthy volunteers. This should be one of the principal priorities for the newly appointed members of our electoral organization.

Chapter Three: I spent the recent Carnival vacations in Margarita. My eldest daughter came to me with a comment about something she had seen on the beach. I enjoyed the story and asked her to put it into writing. The following is the transcription of her notes.

“Adventure on Playa Guacuco by Mercedes Christina – Age 15:

There we were, on the beach, full of family spirit, without a care in the world; a healthy environment to be admired and yearned for; never perturbed but for the few moments when the eventual topless European appeared on the horizon.

The beach is a wonderful place. One is always learning about the latest rumors while the children (a classification awarded to all those younger than I) play with their surf boards or ask for money to buy ice cream or empanadas from the local vendors who, because you are their “favorite client”, generously charge triple the going sales price. Your family keeps smiling, Mom reads a good book, and I, being the well educated daughter I am, comply with my usual duty of making sure Dad receives his daily exercise by playing racket ball.

Just as we began competing to see who would replace Pete Sampras, the ball got away from me and I ran to retrieve it. As I bent down to pick it up, I noticed out of the corner of my eye the presence of a pair of black boots. I straightened up with the intention of asking the owner where he had acquired them since they would definitely have been a great addition to my own collection of footwear. Upon raising my head, I was treated to the fright of my life. The owner of the boots was a longhaired Rambo who was in turn flanked by two lieutenants.

The three soldiers were dressed in camouflage and the only possible reason for their being there in that particular outfit must have been to blend into the palm trees. Given the fact that it was Carnival, their bulletproof vests should probably have been more like egg proof vests. Each one of them was armed to the teeth, and since I am far from an expert in ballistics and armor, their rifles seem more like large cannons.

All this impelled me to reflect on the time and effort our politicians spend supposedly drafting plans to insure the safety of our borders. Apure is the state normally mentioned when adults discuss these problems. My sense of orientation may be poor, but from what I understand, Margarita is not a candidate for surveillance due to border problems. There is quite a distance between Trinidad and Margarita.

Or could it be something else (something my father often talks to me about); that the idea of what adventure tourism should be as perceived by our government is not quite what it should be. They not only scared the wits out of the Europeans, but out of the Venezuelans as well. I believe that instead of attracting foreigners, they are driving them away. For the moment, they should send Rambo and his pals to Apure, where their work will be far more productive.”

Conclusion: Obviously, I am a proud father. I am proud of Mercedes as well as of her sisters. Since I cannot find a sufficiently viable and coherent political proposal out there which will insure improvement of the lamentable situation our country is in, I believe my children form part of a generation of Venezuelans that must necessarily take charge of their own destinies.

However, before they send us packing, I would really like to instill in them a real love for democracy. In this sense, I ask the new officials of our electoral council to forget about teachers and professors when planning the execution of our next presidential elections and give our 15 to 18 year olds a chance to really participate. They are the principal source of generous volunteer service well as the primary victims of our electoral mistakes.

The taxes we have to pay

It is time for payment of income taxes and I have just complied with my duty as a citizen. I must admit that compared to what I would have paid elsewhere, I personally did not have to pay an exaggerated amount of tax. Why is it then, that I am not satisfied? Could it be that it is because I am being eaten away inside by a suspicion, already bordering on certainty, that my country would be better off had I not paid taxes at all?

On the same day I finished struggling through my tax forms, I read in the press about PDVSA´s fiscal contribution for 1997. This contribution amounted to all the Bolivares in the world. Upon cranking the numbers on my calculator which went into an exponential mode, I found that this boils down to a contribution per capita of Bs. 200,000 for every Venezuelan citizen, rich and poor, young and old.

I imagine that in the international world of taxation, these Bs. 200,000, which translate to US$ 400 per year, don’t qualify for a position at the top of the list. If, however, they are expressed in terms of some of the public services offered, these figures are numbing.

Every retired Venezuelan, those we hold dear to our hearts and affectionately refer to as “los viejitos”, is due to receive Bs. 50,000 per month in retirement pay. Using the technology provided for by modern accounting, i.e. re-expression, we can affirm that every Venezuelan, rich and poor, young and old have contributed, via the cession of his or her portion of oil income, an equivalent of 4 months of retirement pay to the nation’s coffers. These figures would undoubtedly qualify us, as taxpayers, for mention in the Guinness World Book of Records.

All of this is before we even get into what we all pay in sales tax, (VAT) which by law must not be specified in the final sales price of any product. This only hides even further the magnitude of the buyer’s contribution to the above mentioned coffers. Is this restriction due simply to bad conscience or to outright hooliganism? I will let others decide.

And all of this before we include the other hidden taxes such as the sky high telephone rates we must pay because the nation has sold concessions at elevated prices in order to raise fresh resources. Authorities (in this case Conatel) have already gone on record as stating that during the next bid for a concession of a cellular phone system, we “must not commit the same mistake of selling it cheaply, in obvious detriment of the interests of the State. We must try to get more than US$ 100 million for it”. Obviously, those US$ 100 million must be repaid by the end user, by way of higher tariffs. Obviously, nobody has considered the right of the common citizen to be able to communicate economically. One of these days it will occur to someone to announce the letting of a concession for pure air.

And all of this before we include the hidden taxes represented by the abominable public services we receive.

And all of this before we include the immense contribution of a healthy portion of the physicians, professors, teachers and other professionals that work and comply with their obligations, earning pay that is well below what it should be.

And all of this before the contribution of companies in the form of taxes on assets, which must be paid whether the company is in the black or in the red and which ultimately find their way to the final consumer.

And all this before we consider the astronomic taxes incurred due to a string of devaluations, the impact of which is proven when we see that never, before or after Columbus, has the public sector been so large in comparison to the private sector. The essence of any neo-liberal model is the reduction of the influence of the public sector on the economy. The tropicalized interpretation of this model by our government officials has allowed them to get rid of all that has become obsolete, that is causing them problems or even worse, that requires investment. It seems that their dream is to keep all fiscal income but without any of the corresponding obligations.

This series of inexhaustible fiscal contributions, voluntary and involuntary, evident and occult, is justified by the threat that, should we not pay up, we will have a monster deficit, inflation will eat us alive, and along with these two specters the big bad wolf will get us as well. Ladies and Gentlemen, inflation has been around for many years and the wolf has been here for some time. It seems to me he is dressed up as the taxman.

Venezuela’s problem cannot be found on the fiscal contribution side of the coin. Venezuela’s problem is found, with crystal clarity, on the fiscal spending side. This is why, by paying my income tax, I could be causing damage to my country. Something like giving drugs to an addict. Something like giving an alcoholic a bottle of rum. Something like treason.

The next time you see a dirty, tattered and hungry child abandoned in the streets without hope, remember that he has also contributed Bs. 200,000 to the Venezuelan State in 1997

PS. Fast forward: My tax paradise (nothing as powerful against tax havens than tax heavens)

Should we abandon OPEC?

Alternative 1: Continue in OPEC, produce little oil and sell it at reasonably high prices. Alternative 2: Abandon OPEC, expand production capacity and sell oil at relatively low prices, while conquering new markets in the process.

Venezuela’s future oil policy should lie somewhere on the axis formed by these extremes. We, as citizens, should supposedly form our own opinion as to where this ideal point should lie.

Over the last 20 years, I have consistently questioned the logic of a policy under which the members of a cartel have turned a blind eye to the diminishing strength of the latter, almost as if on purpose. This is the case of OPEC, which has, year after year, lost market share. In this sense, the only plausible response to the proposal of going out and aggressively conquering new markets should be “let’s go for it”.

Unfortunately, it is not quite like that. Even though I support this proposal on technical terms, I can’t quite seem to drum up enthusiasm. Neither because of the possibility of revindicating myself with an egoistic but savory “I told you so”, nor because of the possible inherent promise of the plan itself. The cause of my indifference is none other than my conviction that such a decision is in itself of little importance for the future of the country.

It does not suffice to follow a coherent oil sector policy. What really matters to the country is its final result. A decision that is technically wrong but produces satisfactory results is clearly better than the opposite. As far as the future of my country is concerned, I am not interested in applying the medical phrase that certifies that “the operation was a success, but the patient unfortunately has died”. 

In its initial phases, OPEC generated large volumes of resources for Venezuela; more than sufficient to set the country on the road to development. This did not occur and there is no reason to believe that the country will manage to reap the non-perishable fruits of this development even if the next oil policy is successful.

Even though I realize that it is not popular today, and feeling a bit like a prehistoric hippie predicating “Love is all we need”, I will risk whispering the statement “oil is a valuable natural, non-renewable resource”.

Since oil is indeed valuable and because it is not renewable, prices have once upon a time been pushed up to nearly $ 40 per barrel and projected prices should probably be around $300 today. Since oil is valuable and non-renewable, it was also said that before liquidating it at low prices it would be better to leave it in the ground (for the benefit of our grandchildren).

If we were not all, myself included, simple egoists itching to get our hands on resources that would allow us to once again live an easy and happy life, we should really be leaving the oil in the ground today, thereby insuring the future of our country and our children. Not until the price is right (the current market price of US$ 12 may indeed be the right price), but until we can find prudent, reasonable and responsible destinies for the income our oil sales generate.

When oil prices skyrocketed in the 1970’s, the country went the route of mega-projects; duties to protect against imports, subsidies and all of the other ingredients which eventually proved to be wrong. At least, however, these were the result of a plan and a vision. Today, there isn’t one coherent statement, not even an incoherent one, with respect to a development model applicable to Venezuela.

These comments are not aimed at paralyzing the oil industry’s current plans. On the contrary. We have read in this week’s press about the need to isolate the country’s fiscal accounts from the ups and downs of oil prices. In my humble and probably validated opinion, we should probably be doing just the opposite in order to give our industry an even chance to fight for its markets. We should be isolating our oil industry from our fiscal appetite.

The previous strategy of reducing production and selling at lower prices represents, in addition to minimizing investment requirements, the milking of our cash cow, PDVSA. Today’s strategy implies that we must cover increasing needs for investment in the face of falling prices with drastic reductions in fiscal spending. We still have a long way to go before we can be convinced that the political will to reduce spending is really out there. To begin with, the US$ 2 billion the country reaped from the oil opening, which should have been earmarked for PDVSA’s own investments and expansion, have already been spent. As usual, there is nothing left!