My Plan Colombia

My Plan Colombia

In times of disagreement, it is important to draw the conveniences, which is why I firmly believe that with the people and land of Venezuela and Colombia we could build a Nation capable of competing, face to face, with the other superpowers of the world. However, given the many mental and real barriers that exist, you will probably ask me: what lumpia [eggroll) did I smoke?

Paraphrasing Carlos Zubillaga, I consider that one of the obstacles to the integration of interests of the two countries is due to the fact that Colombia seems to have developed under the influence of a ruling class, which only sought to dominate, while in Venezuela, our course was marked by a ruling class that refused to dominate.

Another impediment is the loss of self-confidence, caused first and foremost by the gospel of globalization. Normally, our geographical conditions, between north and south, east and west, would represent for a glass-half-full philosopher a cluster of fortresses, but unfortunately, for our glass-half-empty philosophers, they only constitute weak flanks to protect.

To make matters worse, even Bolívar's life cycle, his birth and death, which could unite us so much, instead of constituting a platform to launch us into a greater future, only seems to anchor us in the past.

Given these difficulties, it is understandable that prudence suggests deferring an integration effort until when more favorable conditions exist. However, the reality is that our Colombia, said with the same right and respect with which I hope they can refer to their Venezuela, faces something very close to a civil war, which we simply cannot ignore.

Of course, if we want to preserve the ambitions of achieving a future and twinned greatness, we cannot participate directly in this conflict, but I believe that this should not mean that our only alternative for action is to equip our border and avoid the splash of a Colombia Plan.

On the contrary, the moment is historically opportune to relaunch an aggressive economic integration plan that helps us, both them and us, to understand that the true obstacles to a better future are very, very far from the causes of a fratricidal conflict.

In this sense, I propose that we immediately seek to reaffirm the Andean Pact, at least as it relates to Colombia and Venezuela. To begin, we must seek to align our currencies in order to maximize Colombian-Venezuelan commercial exchange and impose significant external and common trade barriers, which will allow us to create an important internal market.

The above, like a successful angioplasty, could unblock the commercial arteries and oxygenate the economies to such an extent that both Colombia and Venezuela can observe new and better horizons and perhaps even a bonanza that allows generating new and peaceful solutions.

In so many places in the world we observe the presence of wars caused by passions that are absolutely inexplicable to a normal being. For God's sake, whatever happens, I beg you not to leave as an inheritance to our children that absolute, eternal and corrosive hatred between brother peoples, which eats away at a newborn life.

(Translated by Google from an Op-Ed published in El Universal January 4, 2001)

 

A New English Language Empire

I have often harbored reservations about the possibility of success of the European Union. In particular my worry is about its new currency, the euro, the bases of which I believe are rather weak. I recently heard that there is still much debate going on which, even when new to me, leads me to rethink many of today’s geopolitical aspects.

I refer to the thesis that the United Kingdom is finding it extremely difficult to get used to the idea that it must forgo much of its autonomy in favor of an entity formed by other nations which are geographically close, but still very mystifying, and therefore could possibly abandon the idea altogether, forging instead an alliance with the English speaking world. Among the sponsors of this line of thought, I find the Canadian newspaper owner Conrad Black and the well renowned historian Paul Johnson.

Having observed how much time and effort the UK and the United States spend coordinating their foreign policy and considering how tempting it must be to unite cultures of the same origin that speak the same language and share the same legal system into one global superpower, it should not really be surprising if we were all of a sudden presented with the creation of an English Language Union, or ELU. Considering the recent impact of Shakespeare in Hollywood it might be a lot closer than we think.

The possible implications of a NAFTA expanded to include the UK plus perhaps even other nations such as Australia and New Zealand (both disillusioned by the Asian crisis) lead me to reflect on other issues in addition to the importance of the English language. 

The first issue that occurs to me is that any pact of this sort would effectively wipe out any aspiration Europe may nurture of going head to head with the United States unless it undertakes internal expansion (Russia or its former satellites, maybe?).

Another important thought is the fact that in a globalized and computerized world, geographical proximity seems to be losing its importance. The truth is that once you have incurred the cost of loading merchandise on an airplane or ship, the marginal cost of transporting it a few thousand miles further is not really that great. This could be of importance to Venezuela, especially when it owns so much oil.

The Andean Pact, is basically a commercial agreement with Colombia. This makes a lot of sense if we are trying to create bigger markets with their corresponding economies of scale for our respective industrialists. 

It does not make much sense as far as real complementary economics are concerned.

It is possible that Venezuela, while not abandoning its policy of creating larger markets, should be intensifying its efforts of negotiating commercial agreements with countries very different from itself, in which we can maintain our competitive advantages.

While oil prices remain low, our currency will be sufficiently weak so as to allow industries heavily dependent on labor, such as the textile confection sector to compete with Colombia. Evidently, if oil prices were to spike upwards, the bolívar would become stronger and would make survival of industries such as these difficult, obligating the country to impose protective duties.

If, however, our agreements would be based more on real complementary issues and economics, then it would be possible to create sustainable results. A simple theoretical example would be a negotiation of an commercial agreement with one of the Nordic states, with a wintry climate, allowing them preferential access to our market, with the establishment of the beaches of Margarita as the preferred winter tourist attraction for its citizens. Chile, for one, has made a lot of this, in for instance promoting fruit exports, taking advantage of the fact that their seasons are opposite to those of the Northern Hemisphere.

There is no doubt that we are in a fluid and rapidly changing environment in which it is of extreme importance to be alert to the possibilities that are presented to us. Personally, I feel that Venezuela should not hurry into commercial agreements, simply because it is the thing to do, the flavor of the month. What’s more, with the sole exception of Colombia, with which we share a permeable border which in turn makes the negotiation of agreements a must, I believe Venezuela has not signed one single agreement in which it comes out ahead in practical terms as a country.

Published in The Daily Journal, Caracas, April 1999

PS. Oops! Does Brexit now reignite this alternative? How much should the English language proprietors now charge the remainder EU for the use of it… so as to avoid a war between Germans, French and Spaniards on which should now de facto be its official language? Or will EU go for Esperanto?