What would have happened if America’s Founding Fathers had, with something like the “Mining Ordinances for New Spain”, concocted runaway statism?

“The Ordinances of San Lorenzo”, issued in Spain by Felipe II in 1584, incorporated all mines into the royal patrimony. 

These remained in force in America under Spanish dominion until 1783 when they were repealed by the "Mining Ordinances for New Spain", promulgated by King Carlos III. These stipulated that "The mines [including bitumens or earth extracts] belong to my Royal Crown."

1829, Simon Bolívar, Venezuela's “Liberator”, issued a Decree that tacitly established that the mines passed from the Spanish Royal Crown to the domain of the Republic... whose government grants them in ownership and possession to the citizens who request them, under the conditions expressed in the Mining Laws and Ordinances, and with the other provisions contained in this decree." 

As if to reaffirm their origin, the Congress of Venezuela, in the Law of 1832, resolved: "in accordance with the Decree of October 24, 1829, the Ordinance that shall serve as a rule for the Government regarding mines, is that of New Spain of 1783.

And from there, to the Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela of 1999.

Article 12. Mineral and hydrocarbon deposits, whatever their nature, existing in the national territory, under the seabed of the territorial sea, in the exclusive economic zone, and on the continental shelf, belong to the Republic, are public domain assets, and are therefore inalienable and imprescriptible. The seacoasts are public domain assets.

Article 302. The State reserves for itself, through the respective organic law, and for reasons of national interest, the oil industry and other industries, exploitations, services, and assets of public interest and strategic importance. The State shall promote the national manufacturing of raw materials derived from the exploitation of non-renewable natural resources, in order to assimilate, create, and innovate technologies, generate employment and economic growth, and create wealth and well-being for the people.

Article 303. For reasons of economic and political sovereignty and national strategy, the State shall retain all the shares of Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A., PDVSA or of the entity created for the management of the oil industry, with the exception of those of its subsidiaries, strategic alliances, companies, and any other entity that has been or may be established as a result of the business development of Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. PDVSA.

Since then all Venezuela’s natural resources, oil, gold, rare earths and other, have been owned by Venezuela’s government, de facto empowering whoever are in command of it, to be the redistributors of all the revenues this nation derives from the exploitation of its natural resources.

What would have happened to the United States, if America’s Founding Fathers had concocted similar Statism?

https://petropolitan.blogspot.com/2015/06/disculpa-pero-simon-bolivar-fue-el.html

#AI #ChatGPT #Grok: Can you help provide Venezuelan citizens more transparency on how their natural resource revenues are distributed and used?

I asked ChatGPT

In about 300 words: "For the transparency that Venezuelan citizens need and desire, can AI provide a system that, in real time, by showing easy summaries and/or exact details, indicates how Venezuela’s natural resource revenues, e.g., oil and gold, are distributed and used?"

ChatGPT answered:

"Yes — AI can provide a system that shows, in real time or near real time, how Venezuela’s natural resource revenues (like oil and gold) are distributed and used — but the key is how the system is built and what data it has access to.

An AI-powered transparency system would collect data from multiple reliable sources, including government financial reports, budget data, export figures, and independent economic research. It would convert raw numbers (like revenue from oil exports or mineral sales) into structured, machine-readable formats, enabling consistent analysis over time.

Once data is digitized, AI can summarize and visualize it intuitively — for example:

Showing how much revenue comes from oil exports each month.

Breaking down government spending funded by those revenues.

Comparing resource income to budget allocations or public program outlays.

Flagging unusual changes or discrepancies in revenue flows.

For natural resources like oil, data could include production volumes, export destinations, and revenue totals. For minerals like gold, productive output and value estimates would be consolidated across sources, including customs data or independent market tracking. AI would graph trends, generate simple language summaries, and answer questions such as “How much resource revenue was distributed to social programs last quarter?”

Interpreting these figures against official budgets would enable citizens to see not just how much money was earned, but also how it was used (e.g., infrastructure, public salaries, debt service). AI can annotate datasets with contextual explanations and source citations to support verification and understanding.

One challenge is that not all revenue streams are consistently reported or independently verified; some estimates suggest that a significant share of economic activity — including mineral extraction and even contraband — isn’t transparently captured in official statistics. AI can help identify gaps and inconsistencies, but ultimately the system’s value depends on data availability, openness, and quality. 

I said: Thanks!

It replied: You’re very welcome! 😊 Always happy to dig into these questions with you. If you want to push this further—say, stress-testing such a system against weak data, political incentives, or comparing it to Norway/Alaska-style models—I’m game.

I asked Grok:

In about 300 words: "For the transparency that Venezuelan citizens need and desire, can AI provide a system that, in real time, by showing easy summaries and/or exact details, indicates how Venezuela’s natural resource revenues, e.g., oil and gold, are distributed and used?"

Grok answered:

Yes, AI can absolutely provide a real-time transparency system for Venezuela's natural resource revenues, such as oil and gold, addressing the chronic opacity that has fueled corruption and public distrust. Currently, Venezuela's extractive sectors suffer from severe transparency deficits: limited disclosure on contracts, sales, and revenue allocation, with estimates showing that only 8-14% of gold production reaches state coffers, while the rest is siphoned by criminal networks or elites. Oil revenues, managed by PDVSA, face similar issues, with U.S. interventions now directing some proceeds to controlled accounts amid post-Maduro reforms. 

An AI-driven system could integrate data from sources like PDVSA reports, Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) ledgers, satellite imagery for mining monitoring, and blockchain-led transactions for immutable records. Using machine learning, it would process vast datasets in real time, generating user-friendly dashboards: simple summaries (e.g., pie charts showing revenue distribution—60% to elites/partners, 20% to irregular groups, 14% to state in recent gold estimates) and clickable details on specific transactions, like oil export volumes or gold royalties.

AI could employ natural language processing to summarize complex financial documents, anomaly detection to flag irregularities (e.g., production-revenue mismatches), and predictive analytics to forecast resource use. Blockchain integration would ensure tamper-proof tracking from extraction to expenditure, similar to anti-corruption tools in global extractives. For Venezuelan citizens, this empowers oversight, reduces corruption, and rebuilds trust—aligning with EITI standards for accountable governance. 

Challenges include government cooperation for data access, cybersecurity risks, and ethical AI use to avoid biases. With international support, such a system could launch via open-source platforms, fostering the transparency Venezuelans deserve.

I said: Thanks

It replied: You're welcome.

Note: The answers are copied exactly from those given to me by ChatGPT and Grok

#AI ChatGPT Grok: Speculate on what might have become of Venezuela if all its oil revenues had been distributed to Venezuelan-born citizens?

I asked ChatGPT: 

"Venezuela’s oil, by law, belongs to the nation and so, the net oil revenues, are redistributed by its governments. In less than 300 words, can you speculate on what could have been of Venezuela, if all those revenues were distributed equally to all Venezuela born citizens?"

ChatGPT answered:

"If Venezuela’s net oil revenues had been distributed equally to all Venezuelan-born citizens, the country’s trajectory could plausibly have been very different—though not utopian.

First, political incentives would have shifted. Equal per-capita distribution would have sharply reduced the prize of controlling the state. Oil rents would no longer be a discretionary pool to buy loyalty, fund patronage, or entrench power. This could have weakened caudillismo and made democratic competition less zero-sum, lowering the stakes of coups and authoritarian consolidation.

Second, institutional quality might have improved. When citizens receive transparent, regular oil dividends, they tend to demand taxation in exchange for public services (“no representation without taxation,” in reverse). This dynamic—observed in places like Alaska—encourages scrutiny, accountability, and rule-based governance rather than opaque redistribution through ministries and state firms.

Third, economic diversification would likely have been stronger. Direct distribution avoids the classic resource-curse channel in which state spending distorts prices, crowds out private activity, and overvalues the currency. Households, not politicians, would decide how to spend or invest, supporting entrepreneurship and reducing the bias toward state-led megaprojects.

Fourth, inequality and poverty would have fallen more durably. Oil dividends would function like a universal basic income funded by natural capital, smoothing shocks and reducing dependence on politically conditioned subsidies. Importantly, this would empower individuals rather than client groups.

However, this path would not have eliminated all risks. Weak courts, insecure property rights, and poor macro management could still have undermined growth. Oil price volatility would have required strong stabilization rules. And equal distribution alone would not substitute for education, infrastructure, or sound monetary policy.

Still, compared with centralized control of oil rents, equal citizen ownership would likely have produced a freer, more diversified, and more resilient Venezuela—less rich in slogans, but richer in institutions and individual autonomy."

I asked Grok:

"Venezuela’s oil, by law, belongs to the nation and so, the net oil revenues, are redistributed by its governments. In less than 300 words, can you speculate on what could have been of Venezuela, if all those revenues were distributed equally to all Venezuela born citizens?"

Grok answered:

"If the net oil revenues of a resource-rich nation like Venezuela—historically peaking at $60-100 billion annually during oil booms—had been distributed equally as cash dividends to its approximately 30 million citizens instead of through centralized programs, the country might have evolved into a thriving, citizen-driven economy.

Per capita, this could equate to $2,000-3,000 annually (based on average net revenues of $50-70 billion after extraction costs), similar to dividend models in places like Alaska but amplified. A family of four might receive $8,000-12,000 yearly, alleviating poverty directly without administrative hurdles or misuse of funds.

Economically, such direct transfers could ignite entrepreneurship, with citizens investing in businesses, education, or property, diversifying the economy beyond oil. Reduced dependence on state aid might prevent hyperinflation and currency issues, as local saving and spending fuel steady GDP growth of 4-5% annually rather than economic downturns.

Socially, diminished inequality could reduce mass emigration, preserving human capital and fostering stability. Health and education might advance through private efforts, though public infrastructure like roads and hospitals could require supplementary targeted investments or hybrid approaches.

Politically, decentralizing wealth might encourage greater accountability and democratic practices, limiting overreach by authorities. However, challenges include potential short-term inflationary spending or ongoing resource dependency if not mitigated.

In essence, the nation could mirror prosperous oil states like Norway or the UAE, with empowered citizens driving sustainable progress and averting humanitarian challenges."

Petropolitan

The global coalition of oil cursed citizens.

A Bureaucracy Autocracy has been constructed with stealth

Sir, below I quote from Didi Kuo’s review of Moisés Naím’s “The Revenge of Power”, “How the world has been ‘made safe for autocracy’” Washington Post, April 24.

“Today’s autocrats are savvy, with new stratagems fit for a world upended by technological change. They exploit, and sow, distrust in experts, authorities, the media. They manufacture truth, invent enemies and use legal pretexts to consolidate power.”

The regulators in the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision, launched Basel I in 1988. In order to “save” our banks from that “enemy” of excessive risk-taking, these “savvy” experts concocted risk weighted bank capital/equity requirements; and for which they decreed weights of 0% the government and 100% citizens.

That translated effectively into banks being able to leverage much more their capital/equity with  e.g., Treasuries, than with loans to citizens. That has made it much easier for banks to obtain desired risk-adjusted returns on equity with Treasuries, than with any private sector assets. That de facto implies that bureaucrats know better what to do with credit for which repayment they’re not personally responsible for, than e.g., small businesses and entrepreneurs

You don’t need to take my word on it. Paul A. Volcker, in his 2018 autobiography “Keeping at it” which he penned together with Christine Harper, valiantly confessed: “Assets for which bank capital requirements were nonexistent, were what had most political support: sovereign credits. A simple ‘leverage ratio’ discouraged holdings of low-return government securities”

Add to that central banks’ QEs, which primarily includes the purchase of government debt, and the empowernment of a non-transparent Bureaucracy Autocracy becomes evident. 

If that is not a prime example of “what Naím terms stealthocracy: a way of maintaining the architecture of liberal democracy while gutting accountability” what is?

Sir, as a Venezuelan just like Naím I too heard Hugo Chavez with concern and dislike. But, just like Venezuela’s centralized oil revenue curse has allowed truly bad autocrats to remain entrenched even when the walls are tumbling down, what I now most fear, is that world wide easy-government-money curse. 

Let me also remind you Washington Post, that none of the excessive bank exposures that resulted in major crises, or bubbles that have burst, have ever been built up with assets perceived as risky, always with what was perceived as safe.

I could go on and on, but let me end with two questions:

The Founding Fathers of the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave, what would they have opined about the Federal Reserve decreeing risk weights of 0% the Federal Government and 100% We the People?

Where would America be today, if its immigrants centuries ago, had been met by this type of risk averse regulations?

PS. My first ever Op-Ed, in the Daily Journal of Caracas, was on the theme of bank regulations. 

PS. An example of how the Bureaucracy Autocracies work.

PS. I have recently enlisted #AI ChatGPT - OpenAI to help me fight the Bureaucracy Autocracy. "What would you opine of risk weighted bank capital requirements with risk weights assigned for political reasons?"

Here's a letter the Washington Post published August 2023. It refers to Paul Volcker’s valiant courageous and honorable confession on what happened 1988. Thanks @PostOpinions for not ignoring it.

Today we Venezuelans need something very solid to grasp, so as with impetus again believe in the future of our nation.

For Venezuelans to be able to eat quickly, hand PDVSA over to its creditors quickly, so they get the equipment working quickly, so they can collect something quickly, and so that the citizens, not some bandits, can be paid Venezuela’s oil royalties quickly.

Venezuela's legitimate creditors should know that their only chance of collecting anything depends on whether Venezuela manages to raise a reasonable capacity to extract oil again, at a reasonable cost. 

Anyone who arrives to have the responsibility of governing the country should know that without Venezuela being able to raise a reasonable oil extraction capacity, at a reasonable cost, and in a relatively short period, their chances of continuing to have the confidence of the people are nil. 

If most of the net oil revenues (resultas petroleras), are shared equally among all Venezuelans then they will know that, compared to having to bend before authorities to beg for a few Claps, or free gasoline, or foreign currency at preferential rates, they would be in heaven. At last they will be able to feel living in a nation and not in somebody else’s business. 

Because of the above, I'm sure that to raise the soul of our Venezuela, there is nothing better than a great agreement based, for example, in the legitimate creditors during the next 25 years getting 15% of our net oil revenues, the government 34% and citizens 51%.

Impossible? No! Our current legitimate creditors would be delighted with the establishment of a repayment source directly related to the income obtained by an increased oil extractive capacity. 

And I'm sure that with the certainty of an institutional agreement like the previous one, it would rain offers from qualified oil companies to make the many investments that are necessary today, after PDVSA has converted its assets into junk. 

And I'm sure that both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund would be delighted to transparently supervise the correct implementation of such an agreement.

The difficulty? Those hunting the oil revenues and their friends, those who always distribute our oil results to keep the best part for themselves. Again, they will argue that if they manage 34% plus 51%, our Venezuela will be better. Should we keep believing them? No way Jose! 

The faster an agreement like this one is reached, one in which everyone will be rowing in the same direction, the easier it will be to straighten out our twisted and saddened country, in order to give it the necessary encouragement to find solutions to its many other problems. 

In addition, any restructuring of debt has, for simple humanitarian reasons, the duty to seek to provide quick and sustainable responses to the most pressing needs of Venezuelans, primarily those of its malnourished children and those of its elderly painfully abandoned adrift. Humanitarian aid and loans from multilateral institutions help in the short term, but they do not represent a sustainable source of resources. 

Of course, under this redistribution distribution plan it would be much easier to end this economic crime against humanity of giving away gasoline in Venezuela, instead of selling at its opportunity value in the international market. 

I use here the term petroleum extraction since, for decades I have consider it a disrespect to that providence that placed petroleum under Venezuelan earth, to refer to it as producers. 

Translated from Petropolitan

PS. 2026 #AI #ChatGPT – #Grok: How might Venezuela's economic, political, and social evolution have unfolded if the nation's net oil revenues had been distributed directly and equally among all citizens born in the country?

@PerKurowski

My four long-time held principles for a good restructuring of Venezuela’s/Pdvsa’s debt.

A restructuring to be initiated when its corrupt, inept criminal and human rights violating regime has been thrown out and law, justice, democracy and respect for private property has returned.

1. Not only for Venezuela’s sake, but also for all the citizens of the world’s sake, exploit Venezuela’s debt problem in order to establish clear definitions of what should be considered bona fide credits and what odious credits, and what different treatment should be given to these.

2. Align the incentives of the creditors so as to work for having Venezuela’s economy grow instead of extracting from is economy whatever they can. In Venezuela’s case that is quiet straightforward. Have the creditors identify and help finance who can in the shortest-term possible, increase the oil it extracts and exports.

3. In order to align the incentives that will allow such debt restructuring to take place in peaceful and sustainable terms, have all the nations’ net oil revenues to be shared out 15% to its creditors, 34% to Venezuela’s central and local governments, and 51% equally among all Venezuelans.

4. Before the three aforementioned conditions have been formalized Venezuela should thankfully, gratefully accept all humanitarian help given but should not waste one cent of all those bridge loans from here to there that it could be offered, for instance by the IMF.

That should help Venezuela’s legitimate creditors to recover their loans, its government to have to rely more on what the citizens pays it in tax so as to be held more accountable and, foremost, allow Venezuelans to live in a nation and not just in somebody else’s business.

Misunderstanding socialism

The heartbreaking Aug. 9 front-page article “Venezuela’s most vulnerable join the exodus” referred to Venezuela as a “disintegrating socialist state.” I am not a socialist but I have friends who are, and I know many of them have difficulties accepting that in reality, they were hoodwinked by criminals who, because it provided them cover, marketed themselves as socialists to lay their hands on Venezuela’s enormous centralized oil revenue, which many years represented 97 percent of all its exports.

Analysts said some European nations “consider the Venezuelan crisis, in contrast, a remote and politically driven byproduct of the standoff between the Trump administration and [President Nicolás] Maduro that is less likely to affect them.” That is part of the problem, as too many leaders in Europe still have Che Guevara T-shirts.

When the poorest 40 percent in Venezuela received less than 15 percent of what they should have had Venezuela’s net oil revenue been shared equally, as in Alaska, how can that be socialist? When gas is sold at less than one-millionth times the price of milk, how can that be socialist?

U.S. sanctions? Yes, on the margin they might make some things harder, but they would still explain much less than 1 percent of Venezuela’s sufferings.

Per Kurowski, Rockville

PS. The "[President Nicolás]" was inserted by WP, they placed it within brackets, for me Venezuela's legitimate President is currently Juan Guaidó. 

A letter published in the Washington Post August 12, 2019

Today we Venezuelans need something very solid to grasp, so as with impetus again believe in the future of our nation.

For Venezuelans to be able to eat quickly, hand PDVSA over to its creditors quickly, so they get the equipment working quickly, so they can collect something quickly, and so that they can pay the citizens, not some bandits, Venezuela’s oil royalties quickly.

Venezuela's legitimate creditors should know that their only chance of collecting anything depends on whether Venezuela manages to raise a reasonable capacity to extract oil again, at a reasonable cost. 

Anyone who arrives to have the responsibility of governing the country should know that without Venezuela being able to raise a reasonable oil extraction capacity, at a reasonable cost, and in a relatively short period, their chances of continuing to have the confidence of the people are nil. 

If most of the net oil revenues (resultas petroleras), are shared equally among all Venezuelans then they will know that, compared to having to bend before authorities to beg for a few Claps, or free gasoline, or foreign currency at preferential rates, they would be in heaven. At last they will be able to feel living in a nation and not in somebody else’s business. 

Because of the above, I am sure that to raise the soul of our Venezuela, there is nothing better than a great agreement based, for example, in the legitimate creditors during the next 25 years getting 15% of our net oil revenues, the government 34% and citizens 51%.

Impossible? No! Our current legitimate creditors would be delighted with the establishment of a repayment source directly related to the income obtained by an increased oil extractive capacity.

And I am sure that with the certainty of an institutional agreement like the previous one, it would rain offers from qualified oil companies to make the many investments that are necessary today, after PDVSA has converted its assets into junk.

And I am sure that both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund would be delighted to transparently supervise the correct implementation of such an agreement.

The difficulty? Those hunting the oil revenues and their friends, those who always distribute our oil results to keep the best part for themselves. Again, they will argue that if they manage 34% plus 51%, our Venezuela will be better. Should we keep believing them? No way Jose!

 

The faster an agreement like this one is reached, one in which everyone will be rowing in the same direction, the easier it will be to straighten out our twisted and saddened country, in order to give it the necessary encouragement to find solutions to its many other problems. 

In addition, any restructuring of debt has, for simple humanitarian reasons, the duty to seek to provide quick and sustainable responses to the most pressing needs of Venezuelans, primarily those of its malnourished children and those of its elderly painfully abandoned adrift. Humanitarian aid and loans from multilateral institutions help in the short term, but they do not represent a sustainable source of resources.

Of course, under this redistribution distribution plan it would be much easier to end this economic crime against humanity of giving away gasoline in Venezuela, instead of selling at its opportunity value in the international market.

I use here the term petroleum extraction since, for decades I have consider it a disrespect to that providence that placed petroleum under Venezuelan earth, to refer to it as producers.

 

Translated from Petropolitan

@PerKurowski

My tweet on IMF loans to Venezuela

If IMF and friends would give loans around $60bn to Venezuela to help it recover, a big chunk of it, about 35%, should go in cash to all its citizens, e.g. $60 per month each, allowing the markets freely respond to their needs, without any bureaucratic intermediation from above

Si FMI y amigos diesen préstamos tipo $60 mil millones a Venezuela para su recuperación, gran parte, aprox. 35%, debería ir en efectivo a sus ciudadanos, p. ej. $60 por mes c/u, permitiendo que los mercados libremente respondan a sus necesidades, sin intermediación burocrática

The Chavez/Maduro Bolivarian Revolution, has confessed its need of keeping the poor poor

Though in Spanish, below is a short YouTube in which three important members of the Chavez/Maduro Bolivarian Revolution, confess their need of keeping the poor poor: 

Tareck El Aissami, former Vice President and current Minister of Industries and National Production: “The poorer people are, the more loyal to the revolutionary project they are, and the more love for Chávez they have"

Héctor Rodríguez, a former Minister of Education and currently the Governor of Miranda: "It is not that we are going to lift people out of poverty into the middle class so that they later aspire to be scrawny (a derogatory term used for the opposition)"

Jorge Giordani, four times Minister of Planning, “Our political strength is given to us by the poor, they are the one who votes for us and that’s why our discourse of defending the poor. The poor will have to remain poor; we need them so.”

PS. So that the riskier small businesses and entrepreneurs who need credit, will need us more, and therefore vote for us more, we, the regulators of the Bureaucracy Autocracy, must set the risk weighted bank capital requirements especially high on loans to them.

Redistributing wealth is not as straightforward as redistribution profiteers want us to think.

I posted a thread with 8 tweets 

Louis XII could be the filthy rich who gave up main-street purchase power to commission Leonardo da Vinci to paint Salvator Mundi. 500 years later another filthy rich freezes $450 million of his own purchase capacity, hanging that painting on a wall. Bad or great? 

Why are just the "filthy rich", like Louis XII and the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci’s Salvator Mundi cursed? Why not Leonardo da Vinci, or the current vendor of Salvator Mundi? Could they‘ve not just as well used money they got from filthy rich for something “more worthwhile”?

Does it all boil down to that Louis XII should not have commissioned Leonardo da Vinci’s Salvator Mundi and instead have bought food for the poor? I guess that would then depend on what the food suppliers did with that money, farming... or drink more gin. Life ain’t easy.

We can just pray that something of that main-street-purchasing-power comes into the hands of the few risk-taking entrepreneurs who, with luck, help catapult our world forward. Sadly, with risk weighted capital requirements for banks, regulators have made that less possible.

Yes, life isn’t easy. So let us all beware of all those redistribution profiteers out to make money or gain political power and who tell us “Let us just redistribute the wealth of the filthy rich, and you will all live in Nirvana. Venezuela, Nirvana? My …!!!

If Louis XX commissioned Leonardo da Vinci to paint Salvator Mundi, would that not allow a great history book to  be written in order to trace how that money flowed, perhaps to a Bill Gates, generating wealth so that someone could freeze $450 million on a wall, and keep the human development ball rolling? 

 

These ramblings about how the “filthy rich” convert their main-street-purchasing-power into assets and services, some that would never have existed without them started when seeing a totally useless shield in the Louvre in Paris.

Just in case, this is not a point blank defense of the “filthy rich”. It refers strictly to how their purchase power morphs into assets and services. Many “filthy rich” do become so in unjust and corrupt ways, quite often highly detrimental to development.

PS. A tweet: "A tax on wealth? Ok! But please, what assets should the wealthy sell to whom, in order to raise the money to pay it? And what would the buyers otherwise have done with the money they also must raise? And so on, and on, in the circle of the economy’s life."

PS. A tweet: "A conundrum. How to structure a tax on wealth without reducing the wealth that is taxed?"

PS. This of course does not mean that I am not in favor of reducing inequality. For that I strongly believe in the need for an unconditional universal basic income, a Societal Dividend

PS. When it comes to wealth, yachts are often depicted… but rarely do we see any interest in what those yacht-builders did with the money they received.

PS. Let’s hope taxpayers will not be surprised finding out they now have to pick up huge bills for maintaining some Russian oligarchs confiscated super yachts.

PS. Legend holds that when 1974’s Carnation Revolution’s, chief strategist Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho told Sweden’s Olof Palme in Lisbon: “In Portugal we want to get rid of the rich”, Palme replied, “how curious, in Sweden we only aspire to get rid of the poor”

Having fallen so low, Venezuela should take that golden opportunity to try reach the stars.

Moisés Naím and Francisco Toro describe well the utter current horrors of Venezuela in “Venezuela’s suicide: Lessons from a failed state” Foreign Affairs, December 2018.  But they conclude in that: 

“Even if opposition forces—or a U.S.-led armed attack—somehow managed to replace Maduro with an entirely new government, the agenda would be daunting. 

A successor regime would need to reduce the enormous role the military plays in all areas of the public sector. It would have to start from scratch in restoring basic services in health care, education, and law enforcement. 

It would have to rebuild the oil industry and stimulate growth in other economic sectors. It would need to get rid of the drug dealers, prison racketeers, predatory miners, wealthy criminal financiers, and extortionists who have latched on to every part of the state. 

And it would have to make all these changes in the context of a toxic, anarchic political environment and a grave economic crisis.”

That mission impossible sounding reads like placing all responsibility on the government to fix it all by going back and repeat, this time differently, all that got Venezuela to where it is today.

That to me is unacceptable. After all the blood, sweat and tears Venezuela has had to spill during the last decades, it really deserves a brand new future.

Here are eight tweets that imbed my action plan and dreams for my country.

"So Venezuelans can eat, quickly, PDVSA must be handed over in payment in full to all Venezuela’s creditors quickly, so they put that junk to work quickly, so they can recover some money quickly, and so as to pay us citizens, not the government, royalties quickly"

“Let then the government tax those oil revenues received by the citizens (like with 10%), so that those in government are clear about who they work for, and let what the citizens have left, then flow through the market and help oil the economy of Venezuela.”

“The result will be a different and better Venezuela, freed from those oil revenue distributing profiteers that have always found ways to keep more for themselves or their crony friends. No longer will Venezuelans have to live in somebody else’s business”

“New government debt should be contracted only to help pay for investments needed by its core infrastructure; Guri’s hydroelectric dams and central transmission lines. Privatizations should be designed to provide good and low priced services to the public ” 

“Expropriated properties should be returned to original owners, and all efforts made to recover what has been stolen the last 20 years, including by paying a bounty on any money recovered.”

“The government employees should be reduced to a fraction of their current number. With their individual share of oil revenues, and not having to go to work, most of them would anyhow be better off than today”

“The government’s initially ultra low revenues should be used almost exclusively for law enforcement (not military spending). Make Venezuela’s streets safe again, and Venezuela’s citizens, including returning migrants, will take care of the rest”.

“The best way to eradicate forever that economic human rights violation of giving away gasoline domestically, would be to have all citizens to participate in the revenues generated by the sale in Venezuela of gasoline at international prices”

These tweets are not just based on current realities. In 1974, as a 24 years old recently graduated MBA, I was appointed to be the first diversification manager in the Venezuelan Investment Fund that was being created to manage the oil revenues from the oil boom of those days. I resigned after only two weeks, the same day my desk arrived, already convinced by outside pressures exerted, that oil revenues redistribution profiteers would never allow the Fund to have the independence needed.

Three decades later, as an Executive Director of the World Bank 2002-04, a chair that Moisés Naím had also occupied before me, during and after the Iraq war I tried to push for an oil revenue sharing scheme as best I could. No luck, the crony statism interest of concentrating these revenues in the hands governments, were they could be more easily exploited, proved much too strong for me. 

Now Venezuela has a golden opportunity to free itself from the most malignant part of its oil curse, the excessive concentration of power in its government. I pray it is able to keep away any neo-redistribution profiteers. Let us make sure that having fallen this low we Venezuelans will aim for the stars… that way we will, as the Chinese saying goes, at least reach higher than if aiming at something seemingly more reachable.

“Venezuela would need to get rid of [all] who have latched on to every part of the state.”  What better way than assuring there is much less to latch on?

Here are some of the articles I've written and that relate to my desires about Venezuela’s future.

https://www.carnegiecouncil.org/publications/archive/policy_innovations/commentary/000083

https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2012/03/my-tax-paradise.html

https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2017/06/a-simple-but-complex-question-from.html

http://unsustainabledebtsustainability.blogspot.com/2006/05/debt-sustainability-analysis-sdl.html
https://theoilcurse.blogspot.com/2015/07/cidhdenunciasoas.html

http://theoilcurse.blogspot.com/2016/05/the-last-thing-venezuela-needs-is-to.html

Keep your eyes on the ball, Cambridge Analytica is not it.

The whole Cambridge Analytica affair, which came about when some limited Facebook data on 87 million people was presumably misappropriated, seems now used a lot to hide the fact that the existence at Facebook of much more detailed data on 2.2 billion people poses, almost by definition, a bigger problem.

Since regulations might come, whether we like it or not, like many I have been giving some thoughts on how to regulate Facebook. This is what I have come up with. First of all, let us avoid many complicated hard to understand rules and go for some very simple few ones. Among these I would suggest: 

Have Facebook respect our very scarce attention span by limiting the ads it generates to a maximum of 3 per person on a per hour on line basis.

Prohibit all data collection on truly private matters such as political, religious or sexual preferences.

And foremost a total prohibition on handing over any data to government agencies. The last thing we need is for Facebook and similar to enter into profitable "Big Brother is Watching You” joint ventures with governments. I am from Venezuela, and I have seen enough damage having been caused by governments taking over traditional media, to want to think about these being able to exploit social media. Can you imagine Maduro using our Facebook data to decide with much more precision, who to give his food-boxes to?

Farfetched? In Venezuela, the government of President Nicolás Maduro is arresting and detaining—in horrific conditions—teenagers who use Facebook to call on friends to attend anti-government demonstrations

We "The Resistance", might urgently need to create alternative underground social media.

PS. Of course I would love to see some of the advertising revenues we allowed Facebook to earn, return to us whose data is being exploited, perhaps by means of helping to fund a Universal Basic Income. 

@PerKurowski

Many lesser impact sanctions, on many more soft-liners (50.000?) are also needed in Venezuela.

The Atlantic Council has just published a document on the issue of “What US sanctions would be most effective in maximizing pressure on President Maduro’s government while minimizing repercussions for the Venezuelan people?”

It includes to “Extend the use of individual sanctions, and potentially some entity-focused sanctions, to fracture the regime soft-liners from the hard-liners with nothing to lose.” 

I agree, but I do not think that only severe sanctions, of some few very responsible hard-liners, like to “block all property belonging to those individuals and entities subject to US jurisdiction and prohibit US persons from engaging in transactions with them”, will suffice.

Lesser impact sanctions, extended to many more soft-liners, could prove easier to implement and be even more effective.

For this it might suffice with USA, Canada, Europe and all those nations that recently signed a declaration in Lima, informing they were now contemplating issuing a blank prohibition to all members of the Constituent Assembly, and of the National Guard, sort of 50.000 Venezuelans, to access any kind of visa. 

If that prohibition could, at a later moment, perhaps also be extended to include all their close relatives, it would ignite many serious discussions and doubts in the homes of the soft-liners.

A simple but complex question from a humble Venezuelan economist to any outstanding Venezuelan international lawyer

The 1999 Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic ofVenezuela establishes:

"Article 12. Mining and hydrocarbon deposits, whatever their nature, existing in the national territory, under the territorial sea bed, in the exclusive economic zone and on the continental shelf, belong to the Republic, are the property of the Public domain and, therefore, inalienable and imprescriptible. "

Suppose a Revised Constitution would establish: "Article 12. Mining and hydrocarbon deposits, whatever their nature, existing in the national territory, under the territorial sea bed, in the exclusive economic zone and on the continental shelf, belong to Venezuelan citizens, as long as they live and, therefore, inalienable and imprescriptible."

Suppose also that the current PDVSA bankruptcy and all its assets are acquired by a PDVSA II or by any other national or foreign company that, on behalf of the citizens of Venezuela, has been entrusted to extract and market that oil providentially deposited in Venezuela. 

So then a tanker would be transporting, not the oil of a sovereign country, but the oil privately owned by millions of Venezuelan citizens.  My question to expert lawyers would then be:

Could the financiers of the Bolivarian Revolution of Venezuela, or old PDVSA, embargo that tanker? Could a tanker for instance belonging to ExxonMobil, be seized by creditors of the United States or the state of Texas in the event that any of the latter fail to meet financial obligations?

Of course, current Venezuela and Pdvsa creditors would claim before judges they always lent against estimated future oil revenues. But, can a government mortgage something that the constitution itself declares as inalienable?

Would the world, knowing then that the oil revenues carried by the tanker would be delivered directly to millions of Venezuelans, the rightful owners of the oil, and which will help these to satisfy some basic human needs, like food and medicines ... allow that tanker to be embargoed in order to satisfy the cravings of a few speculating financiers?

Dear friends, our Venezuela has been ransacked. It is the obligation of every Venezuelan to seek to try to save our nation in any way we can. 

If expert lawyers respond to me with a "You’re crazy Kurowski, that’s not possible", then, shamelessly, I’ll try to find other ways.

And if that means governments’ of Venezuela will not get access to credit in the future, I would almost count that as a blessing.

And don’t tell me I did not warn the creditors before!

PS. This is loosely translated from here

Goldman Sachs’ Lloyd Blankfein should perhaps go to jail, for violating the FCPA, or be fired, for being too dumb

1. For years (decades) I've argued that any sovereign (and I really mean any sovereign) that has to pay something like 100-200% more in interest rates than that sovereign who at that time pays the least, in order to obtain finance, has not earned the right to take on public debt, and with that to mortgage its future generations of citizens. 

The current rate the US has to pay for 5-year money is about 2%.

2. There are plenty of persons currently in jail in the US because of acts committed against the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA).

3. Goldman Sachs, has just handed over about US$800 million to the notoriously corrupt, criminal and human rights violating government of Venezuela, in order to obtain $2.8billion Venezuelan bonds paying a 12.75% interest rate, which if repaid would provide GS with about a 42% yearly return, 2.000% more than what US pays. Has it in fact not committed the mother of all corruptions acts punishable under the FCPA?

4. Of course, if Lloyd Blankfein, the chairman of Goldman Sachs, can see a 42% return for lending to a sovereign, and not conclude that something extremely corrupt and fishy is going on, then he should, as a minimum minimorum, instead be fired for being too dumb.

Many people have been arguing for decades for the need of a Sovereign Debt Rescheduling Mechanism (SDRM). I agree with that, but that must begin with classifying credits as bona-fide, doubtful, or outright odious. This specific Venezuela debt referred to here, clearly belongs to the latter, and should not be repaid.

PS. Venezuela, a nation with tremendous food and medicine shortages sells gas at less than US$ 2 cents a gallon. What else can I say?

PS. If the elites do not socially sanction those they should sanction, there will be no society left to sanction.

PS. Today June 27, 2017, Maduro, he who was financed by Goldman Sachs stated "If we don't win with votes we will win with our weapons".

PS. https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2017/country-chapters/venezuela

PS. Still, November 2018, and not the slightest sign of a "Sorry" from Lloyd Blankfein. Did he earn a big bonus for mistreating Venezuela? Are all those working in Goldman Sachs really proud of this?