Rising global info-confusion

About a week ago, I took a humble and run-down taxi from the airport to the capital city of a small Central American country. During the ride, the equally as humble taxi driver gave me a masterly lesson about globalization. After having informed him about where I’m from, he asked in one long breathless phase, “Has Comandante Chavez managed to get rid of Magistrate Sosa yet? By the way, where exactly is Venezuela? Near Spain, no?”

The taxi driver had simultaneously shown a surprising knowledge about Venezuela’s internal politics and an almost embarrassing ignorance about basic geography. This incident prompted me to reflect about the matter of global information. To begin with, it is evident that when speaking about this confusing issue, more is not necessarily better. Greater quantity of information can simply mean more irrelevant data, more often than not at the expense of pertinence. Likewise, too much information can confuse things and plant so many trees that it becomes impossible to see the forests.

In Venezuela, for example, and without getting into details, it is surprising to see how most of the nation is still blind to the terrible implications that the taxes on oil products levied by consuming nations have on our country.

The above-mentioned example makes it tempting to establish priorities. However, who are we to determine whether the internal politics of a country are more or less relevant to someone like my taxi driver than that same country’s geographical location. What’s more, when you think about it, it could just be that in a globalized world, geography as I studied it is not really relevant any more.

Upon observing how fast the volume of information is growing, I remember that a few years ago I maintained the thesis that the lack of information could actually be valuable as a promoter of development. On occasions, ignorance of certain matters kept alive the dreams of finding the greener valley.

These dreams are the ones that drove Americans to invest in Italy, Italians to move to Venezuela and Venezuelans to find work in the United States. This generated economic growth all around.

The increasing speed of today’s information flow also raises some doubts. 

Although it is certainly advantageous to insure that correct and relevant information as well as good news is transmitted rapidly, it is also certain that this same speed is usually applied when propagating incorrect and irrelevant information, as well as increasing volumes of bad news.

For some not totally identified reason, I feel that the magnifying effect of speed upon bad information is somehow greater that on good information. Making peace, for example, requires time which is often not available. Provoking war often takes just a matter of seconds.

Just who the creators and receivers of information are is also deserving of reflection. There is no doubt that the foreign investors the country most wishes to attract are those that bring with them a long-term vision and who will therefore create many permanent jobs

Unfortunately, however, we frequently confuse economic policies that are positive and adequate for the country with the information that short term capital wants to see. The main reason for this is that it is precisely those short-term investors who pressure the most for urgent and globalized information.

As a result of this, we often see economic schemes based on high interest rates, a strong currency, fiscal equilibrium and economic puritanism. All the long-term investors really want and need however, is a good internal demand and a competitive exchange rate.

I write articles, and to achieve this I frequently use sources of information that, in spite of offering a lot of detail, are not necessarily relevant or complete. My taxi driver reminded me of this risk. I may have come off as an idiot in many of my articles and probably don’t even know it due to the cordial discretion of my readers. If this were the case, thank you. Remember that my ego is not as strong as that of the New York Times, and if I have sinned, I prefer not to know.

PS. In 2003, as an Executive Director of the World Bank, I formally warned: "Nowadays, when information is just too voluminous and fast to handle, market or authorities have decided to delegate the evaluation of it into the hands of much fewer players such as the credit rating agencies. This will, almost by definition, introduce systemic risks in the market"

A comparative look at Venezuela, Honduras

I have just returned from a few days of work in Honduras, which as everyone knows has been ravaged by Hurricane Mitch. During this trip I had the chance to jot down some observations about our own country.

On volunteerism: I saw young men and women of the Peace Corp arriving at the airport in Honduras, ready to cooperate as best they can by helping poor communities combat hunger, educate their children and fight AIDS among many other things. These young North Americans, all graduated, will work in a strange country for two years without remuneration of any sort and under immensely difficult circumstances given the comfort they leave behind at home.

In Venezuela, on the other hand, we have had to set aside a budget of Bs. 2.4 billion to entice our local “volunteers” to come forward to supervise what is to be an event of immense import for our country, i.e. the referendum calling for its own Constituent Assembly. 

When I think that our heroes of independence sacrificed their lives I can’t help but feel that it is a sad state of affairs when today we cannot even contemplate giving away one free day for our country.

On the evidence of crisis: I had the opportunity to visit many public offices in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, in which I found that most officials had to work in truly uncomfortable conditions in any small space or cubby-hole they we able to find.

God knows it is not my purpose to compare a crisis such as the financial one we are going through in Venezuela with the type of emergency, misery and loss of human life that nature has saddled Honduras with. In spite of this, I cannot help observing that in Venezuela, in which the financial crisis also created economic conditions that in turn created hunger (much of it due to the mishandling of the situation), many of the public offices today work in brand new offices which were recuperated during and after the collapse of the banking system, like the spoils of a war.

On information about the administration of government: I also had the chance of reviewing the Management Information System which allows Minister Manuel Zelaya Rosales, President of the Honduran Social Investment Fund (FIHS) to have exact information, day after day, about all the projects being undertaken by his office.

According to the information I have, the portable computer carried by the Minister wherever he goes contains information on at least 1,000 projects, schools, bridges, etc. that are currently under construction. 

On top of this, there is historical information about over 5,000 finished projects. 

The cost of a similar system is not very high today. Since the capture of the original information occurs only once and the system serves multiple purposes such as control, accounting, statistics, etc., it also has the potential of providing great operational savings.

In contrast, I recently read in the local press in Venezuela that it is impossible to find actual and up to date information as to how many employees are on the public payroll today. 

Having seen how the FIHS system works in Honduras, the only thing I can think of is that this level of information should be absolutely obligatory in any democracy worth its salt. One of the principal innovations our Constituent Assembly should produce is the right to total and instantaneous information about our government, something technically quite feasible today.

On gas stations: One clear coincidence between the two countries is the existence of a great number of sparkling new gasoline stations that offer, one way or another, to satisfy the consumers’ other needs. 

It is difficult for me to understand and accept that countries such as ours, with unattended basic needs such as food, education, health, transportation, water, electricity, etc., can develop models of economic development which offer this type of infrastructure as “evidence” of their success and potential.

I can perfectly understand that some of the up-scale neighborhoods have luxury gasoline stations for those who can and wish to pay more for service. Nobody can convince me that the recent epidemic in investment in gasoline stations responds to local free market decisions. 

“Someone’s” hand is manipulating the market in the name of free markets, and that must and will be paid for. For the moment, it seems that PDVSA will have to pay a part of the requirements for subsidies it has itself created.

Excited about the Constituent Assembly 2000

Like many Venezuelans, I have reflected on the Constituent Assembly. At first, I was one of those who believed that although it was true that it seemed necessary to make some changes to our Constitution, these, in any case, could be made through reforms, without the need to resort to what would undoubtedly be a process cumbersome.

Today, when the Constituent Assembly, due to its reception, is almost an accomplished fact, my approach becomes one of "if we are going to do it, let's do it well." Analyzed from this point of view, shaken off the fear of the process and embraced the hope of its potential, I must admit that I have become a fervent and enthusiastic defender of the Constituent Assembly.

My enthusiasm multiplied when I discovered that Venezuela has, at this moment, the unique opportunity to create, for the world, the first Constitution of the next millennium. To be able to live up to these circumstances, I believe it is essential to apply the Chinese proverb, which asks us to aim high for the stars because, even when we do not reach them, we will reach much higher than if we aim for something closer.

I do not downplay the importance of history and I believe that we can and should extract a lot of knowledge from it, when drafting a constitution. However, giving excessive importance to constitutional experts could make us lose an opportunity to thoroughly modernize our constitutional reality.

I accept that there are necessary reforms, which are situated within the context of a traditional constituent debate, such as those that concern the judicial power and the tax capacity of states and municipalities.

Likewise, we require reforms that arise from our own realities. Among these and given our disastrous experience, is that of limiting the State's debt. Because I am absolutely certain that, from time to time, we will have governments incapable of resisting the siren songs, ending up, at no cost, by mortgaging the future of other generations of Venezuelans, I believe that the limitation on the State debt must be have constitutional rank. If Venezuela had not incurred its external public debt, because there is a constitutional provision that prohibits it, I swear to you and I bet you my entire professional career, that thanks to that Constitution, Venezuelans today, "would go better to the supermarket."

Another reform, one of those originating in our own reality and that I consider necessary, is one that establishes the obligation that in the administration of State companies, there is effective representation of civil society. For example, I believe that a PDVSA Board of Directors, whose members were elected by popular vote, rotating a certain percentage of them in each national election, could be an excellent option, to ensure that there is no undue pressure from the political sector or of the oil technocrats.

Notwithstanding all of the above, at this time, what I most wish to highlight is the fact that, as a result of the great changes that have occurred in the world, there is an urgency to introduce constitutional considerations on aspects that have never been contemplated. , in their Magna Cartas, for any country. Allowing me, for these purposes, to suggest the following:

• The information revolution. If it can be stated that "a Democracy with hunger is not Democracy", it must be more valid to say that "a Democracy without information is not Democracy either." Is it not a citizen's right to be able to know the public payroll, the amount of the country's external debt, the “real” recoveries of Fogade, etc.?

There is no doubt that the technology that exists today, to collect and disseminate information, allows a society to have the right to demand from its rulers a level of information, dramatically different, than what could be contemplated when the constitutions currently in force were drafted. I believe that in our 2000 Constitution, the right of the citizen to be informed about government management, in a valid, detailed and real-time manner, should be enshrined.

• The power of advertising. Had they known, in their time, the impact that advertising media have today, I am sure that the drafters of the current constitutions would have introduced limitations to official advertising. The Nation, states, municipalities, government entities and/or state companies should be prohibited from spending a single cent on paying for advertising, clearly aimed at promoting the personal and political image of any public official on duty.

• The globalization. Without a doubt, just trying to redefine the concept of Nation, within what is a world, where global relations intensify, second by second, is a challenge whose importance is lost from sight. How proud it would be for Venezuela to be able to rediscover itself, in a way that guides and illuminates other countries that are lost, which is probably all of them.

Let us enthusiastically face the challenge of showing the world that Venezuela is capable of producing a Constitution that will be an example for the next millennium. Otherwise, not only will we have wasted a historic opportunity, but, to make matters worse, soon after, we would surely have to convene another Constituent Assembly...

Economía Hoy January 12, 1999

My Constitutional wish list

As do many Venezuelans these days, I have dedicated some time to reflection about the Infamous Constituent Assembly (La Constituyente). 

At the beginning I was among those that believed that, although it is true that our Constitution requires some changes, these changes could be made without having to go through what seemed to be an unnecessarily complicated process.

Today, this assembly, due to its enormous public appeal, is basically a done deal. My outlook, therefore, is now more in the realm of “if we are going to do it, let’s do it properly”. Having analyzed this point of view, having expunged my fear of the process and having embraced the hope in its potential, I must admit I have now become a fervid supporter of the Constituent Assembly.

My enthusiasm is based on the fact that Venezuela now has the opportunity to create the first new Constitution of the next millennium in the world. It is our challenge and our responsibility to ensure that this Constitution is in line with the requirements of this next millennium. To achieve this, we must follow that ancient Chinese proverb that states something like: aim for the stars, and although you may not reach them, you will surely reach higher than if you had aimed at something within easy reach.

I certainly don’t wish to minimize the importance of history. Certainly, we must take heed and learn from the past if we wish to come up with a good Constitution. 

However, if we allot excessive importance to the gaggle of “constitutional experts” that surround us today, we will most surely miss the opportunity to truly modernize our Constitutional reality.

I accept the fact that there are various reforms that are based on traditional constitutional debate. Among these are, for example, those that correspond to reforms in the judicial system and in the fiscal capacity of decentralized entities such as the States and the Municipalities to create and collect taxes.

Likewise, there are other reforms that are born out of our own particular realities. Among these, I have given special attention to the following two reforms.

The first is a strict constitutional restriction on public indebtedness, specially in light of our disastrous experience in the past. This is vital for our country, since we know with absolute certainty that every now and then, the government of turn will not be able to resist the bankers’ siren song, incurring in debt and mortgaging the futures of several generations of Venezuelans without producing tangible results. These limitations on indebtedness should be established in our Constitution.

The second reform born out of our own realities, is one that inserts an effective representative of civil society between the political and technocratic sectors. I personally consider that the Petroleum sector as well as other productive activities undertaken by the State (Sidor, CVG and Pequiven) should be governed by a Board of Directors whose members are elected by popular vote, rotating a percentage of them at every national election.

Notwithstanding the above, what I really wish to address is the fact that as a result of the profound changes that have occurred worldwide, it is urgent that we introduce aspects based on today’s realities that were never taken into account by any country in the world when drafting previous Constitutions, simply because similar problems never existed before. Among these I can highlight the following:

The information revolution: If we can say that a democracy with hunger is not democracy, we can also safely state that a democracy without information is also not democracy. 

Without a doubt, new technological advancements that make the collection and dissemination of information quick and easy also give societies the right to demand of its governments a level of information that dramatically exceeds the level present at the moment the world’s existing Constitutions were drafted. 

In this sense, Venezuela’s next Constitution must include the citizens’ right to be informed as to the government’s management of the Nation’s affairs. This information must be valid, truthful, detailed and in real-time.

The power of publicity: Should the drafters of previous Constitutions have been aware of the immense power that the public media can wield, I am absolutely sure that they would have included an article that limits the amount of publicity that governmental entities can undertake. 

To begin with, they would have put a stop to the spending often undertaken by a Nation, a State, a Municipality or a governmental agency or company on behalf of, and to promote the name of, a particular public official.

Globalization: Without a doubt, to try to redefine the concept of a “Nation” within a world in which global relationships intensify second by second is a challenge of incredible importance. 

What a source of pride it would be for Venezuela if we could find our way forward in a way that would guide and illuminate the other countries around the world (probably all of them) that have lost their way. 

Let us face this challenge with enthusiasm and show the world that Venezuela is capable of producing a Constitution that is an example for the world of the coming millennium. 

If we don’t achieve this, we will have wasted a golden historic opportunity. Worse still, we will soon have to call for another Constituent Assembly.

PS. 2023 I asked ChatGPT and in 2025 Grok: Can you visualize Artificial Intelligence being used to measure the effectiveness of governments? They both say YES!

https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2023/08/ai-chatgpt-openai-can-you-visualize.html

https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2025/03/grok-can-you-visualize-artificial.html

 

Municipal governance ranking

An election, where there is the possibility of re-election, becomes, indisputably, an evaluation of results. We have witnessed elections in which the number of re-elected governors was truly impressive. Does this mean that the management of the Governments, in general, was good? Maybe yes, maybe not. For an ordinary voter, it is very difficult to determine, objectively, whether a Governor's management was good or bad.

Next year, with our votes, we have to evaluate the management of the municipalities. The challenge is important. If with our vote we reward those who deserve it and punish those who do not, the country will undoubtedly benefit. Similarly, if we are wrong in our assessment, this could erode many achievements at the Central or State Government level.

Today, in the case of a normal voter, who has other occupations and concerns, I ask myself: How should he know if the results of the management of a municipality, which at first glance may seem poor, are not located within a very good management, aimed at achieving sustainable improvements? How should management be measured to establish, when considering available resources, whether there is excellence or waste?

Imagine the confusion of parents if the educational society suddenly decides to eliminate the school report/the grades. How would they go about evaluating their children's academic ability, especially in subjects that were not even part of the parents' curriculum? The above is similar to the confusion that a voter may feel when having to choose their municipal authorities.

We have just heard expressions such as: "Democracy with hunger is not Democracy." In our current world, we could also say that “Democracy without correct and accessible information is not Democracy.”

When I recently had the opportunity to travel through a Central American country, I was surprised by the certainty with which many professionals, both from public and private, national and international entities, held consistent opinions regarding which municipalities were well governed and which not. This gave me to understand that in the field of municipal administration, there are certain variables that, objectively evaluated, can allow giving a reasonable opinion on the quality of its management.

If true, it occurs to me that a measure that could help strengthen the efficiency of our democracy would be to create a municipal “ranking” for the more than 300 Municipalities that exist in Venezuela. Said "ranking" could indicate to us, as voters, whether, in general terms, our municipality is among the good or among the bad.

I am sure that if in a country, a performance index were used, even if imperfect, in the election to renew its more than 300 municipal authorities, this would allow the people to keep the best and dismiss the worst, leading them towards a different and better future. Another would be the future of a country where the voters' decision criteria is based only on the sympathy of the Mayor or on the quality of the promotional spots.

Of course, I do not believe that a measurement, no matter how objective, can guarantee an analytically correct result. Much less, do I claim that a “ranking” can replace the value of the sum of the votes individually cast. However, I consider that a reasonable “ranking” can at its extremes (the best and the worst) function like the information regarding its ingredients, such as fats, calories, proteins and vitamins, that appears on the food packaging. This nutritional information does not constitute a prohibition on eating food, but it is an indication that allows us to rationalize the diet.

At this time, it would give the impression that the country is betting on decentralization. In such circumstances, I believe that one of the most important contributions that civil society could make would be to establish a committee to evaluate municipal efficiency, whose main product is, precisely, the Municipal “Ranking”.

In ranking design, there is no need for excess precision. I am sure that the 50 municipalities that are “ranked” as the best will truly be among the 150 best. Likewise, the 50 municipalities that are “ranked” as the worst must surely be among the 150 that truly make up the worst.

The suggestion I make is not intended to reduce our rights as voters. By declaring that I am not in the capacity to analyze whether things are good or bad in my municipality (in terms of what can and should be done), what I am requesting is some external help, I am not qualifying myself as electorally illiterate. . I just wish they would provide me with glasses that allow me to see better.

Translated by Google from a 1998 Op-Ed in Venezuela