Today we Venezuelans need something very solid to grasp, so as with impetus again believe in the future of our nation.

For Venezuelans to be able to eat quickly, hand PDVSA over to its creditors quickly, so they get the equipment working quickly, so they can collect something quickly, and so that the citizens, not some bandits, can be paid Venezuela’s oil royalties quickly.

Venezuela's legitimate creditors should know that their only chance of collecting anything depends on whether Venezuela manages to raise a reasonable capacity to extract oil again, at a reasonable cost. 

Anyone who arrives to have the responsibility of governing the country should know that without Venezuela being able to raise a reasonable oil extraction capacity, at a reasonable cost, and in a relatively short period, their chances of continuing to have the confidence of the people are nil. 

If most of the net oil revenues (resultas petroleras), are shared equally among all Venezuelans then they will know that, compared to having to bend before authorities to beg for a few Claps, or free gasoline, or foreign currency at preferential rates, they would be in heaven. At last they will be able to feel living in a nation and not in somebody else’s business. 

Because of the above, I'm sure that to raise the soul of our Venezuela, there is nothing better than a great agreement based, for example, in the legitimate creditors during the next 25 years getting 15% of our net oil revenues, the government 34% and citizens 51%.

Impossible? No! Our current legitimate creditors would be delighted with the establishment of a repayment source directly related to the income obtained by an increased oil extractive capacity. 

And I'm sure that with the certainty of an institutional agreement like the previous one, it would rain offers from qualified oil companies to make the many investments that are necessary today, after PDVSA has converted its assets into junk. 

And I'm sure that both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund would be delighted to transparently supervise the correct implementation of such an agreement.

The difficulty? Those hunting the oil revenues and their friends, those who always distribute our oil results to keep the best part for themselves. Again, they will argue that if they manage 34% plus 51%, our Venezuela will be better. Should we keep believing them? No way Jose! 

The faster an agreement like this one is reached, one in which everyone will be rowing in the same direction, the easier it will be to straighten out our twisted and saddened country, in order to give it the necessary encouragement to find solutions to its many other problems. 

In addition, any restructuring of debt has, for simple humanitarian reasons, the duty to seek to provide quick and sustainable responses to the most pressing needs of Venezuelans, primarily those of its malnourished children and those of its elderly painfully abandoned adrift. Humanitarian aid and loans from multilateral institutions help in the short term, but they do not represent a sustainable source of resources. 

Of course, under this redistribution distribution plan it would be much easier to end this economic crime against humanity of giving away gasoline in Venezuela, instead of selling at its opportunity value in the international market. 

I use here the term petroleum extraction since, for decades I have consider it a disrespect to that providence that placed petroleum under Venezuelan earth, to refer to it as producers. 

Translated from Petropolitan

PS. 2026 #AI #ChatGPT – #Grok: How might Venezuela's economic, political, and social evolution have unfolded if the nation's net oil revenues had been distributed directly and equally among all citizens born in the country?

@PerKurowski

My four long-time held principles for a good restructuring of Venezuela’s/Pdvsa’s debt.

A restructuring to be initiated when its corrupt, inept criminal and human rights violating regime has been thrown out and law, justice, democracy and respect for private property has returned.

1. Not only for Venezuela’s sake, but also for all the citizens of the world’s sake, exploit Venezuela’s debt problem in order to establish clear definitions of what should be considered bona fide credits and what odious credits, and what different treatment should be given to these.

2. Align the incentives of the creditors so as to work for having Venezuela’s economy grow instead of extracting from is economy whatever they can. In Venezuela’s case that is quiet straightforward. Have the creditors identify and help finance who can in the shortest-term possible, increase the oil it extracts and exports.

3. In order to align the incentives that will allow such debt restructuring to take place in peaceful and sustainable terms, have all the nations’ net oil revenues to be shared out 15% to its creditors, 34% to Venezuela’s central and local governments, and 51% equally among all Venezuelans.

4. Before the three aforementioned conditions have been formalized Venezuela should thankfully, gratefully accept all humanitarian help given but should not waste one cent of all those bridge loans from here to there that it could be offered, for instance by the IMF.

That should help Venezuela’s legitimate creditors to recover their loans, its government to have to rely more on what the citizens pays it in tax so as to be held more accountable and, foremost, allow Venezuelans to live in a nation and not just in somebody else’s business.

Misunderstanding socialism

The heartbreaking Aug. 9 front-page article “Venezuela’s most vulnerable join the exodus” referred to Venezuela as a “disintegrating socialist state.” I am not a socialist but I have friends who are, and I know many of them have difficulties accepting that in reality, they were hoodwinked by criminals who, because it provided them cover, marketed themselves as socialists to lay their hands on Venezuela’s enormous centralized oil revenue, which many years represented 97 percent of all its exports.

Analysts said some European nations “consider the Venezuelan crisis, in contrast, a remote and politically driven byproduct of the standoff between the Trump administration and [President Nicolás] Maduro that is less likely to affect them.” That is part of the problem, as too many leaders in Europe still have Che Guevara T-shirts.

When the poorest 40 percent in Venezuela received less than 15 percent of what they should have had Venezuela’s net oil revenue been shared equally, as in Alaska, how can that be socialist? When gas is sold at less than one-millionth times the price of milk, how can that be socialist?

U.S. sanctions? Yes, on the margin they might make some things harder, but they would still explain much less than 1 percent of Venezuela’s sufferings.

Per Kurowski, Rockville

PS. The "[President Nicolás]" was inserted by WP, they placed it within brackets, for me Venezuela's legitimate President is currently Juan Guaidó. 

A letter published in the Washington Post August 12, 2019

Having fallen so low, Venezuela should take that golden opportunity to try reach the stars.

Moisés Naím and Francisco Toro describe well the utter current horrors of Venezuela in “Venezuela’s suicide: Lessons from a failed state” Foreign Affairs, December 2018.  But they conclude in that: 

“Even if opposition forces—or a U.S.-led armed attack—somehow managed to replace Maduro with an entirely new government, the agenda would be daunting. 

A successor regime would need to reduce the enormous role the military plays in all areas of the public sector. It would have to start from scratch in restoring basic services in health care, education, and law enforcement. 

It would have to rebuild the oil industry and stimulate growth in other economic sectors. It would need to get rid of the drug dealers, prison racketeers, predatory miners, wealthy criminal financiers, and extortionists who have latched on to every part of the state. 

And it would have to make all these changes in the context of a toxic, anarchic political environment and a grave economic crisis.”

That mission impossible sounding reads like placing all responsibility on the government to fix it all by going back and repeat, this time differently, all that got Venezuela to where it is today.

That to me is unacceptable. After all the blood, sweat and tears Venezuela has had to spill during the last decades, it really deserves a brand new future.

Here are eight tweets that imbed my action plan and dreams for my country.

"So Venezuelans can eat, quickly, PDVSA must be handed over in payment in full to all Venezuela’s creditors quickly, so they put that junk to work quickly, so they can recover some money quickly, and so as to pay us citizens, not the government, royalties quickly"

“Let then the government tax those oil revenues received by the citizens (like with 10%), so that those in government are clear about who they work for, and let what the citizens have left, then flow through the market and help oil the economy of Venezuela.”

“The result will be a different and better Venezuela, freed from those oil revenue distributing profiteers that have always found ways to keep more for themselves or their crony friends. No longer will Venezuelans have to live in somebody else’s business”

“New government debt should be contracted only to help pay for investments needed by its core infrastructure; Guri’s hydroelectric dams and central transmission lines. Privatizations should be designed to provide good and low priced services to the public ” 

“Expropriated properties should be returned to original owners, and all efforts made to recover what has been stolen the last 20 years, including by paying a bounty on any money recovered.”

“The government employees should be reduced to a fraction of their current number. With their individual share of oil revenues, and not having to go to work, most of them would anyhow be better off than today”

“The government’s initially ultra low revenues should be used almost exclusively for law enforcement (not military spending). Make Venezuela’s streets safe again, and Venezuela’s citizens, including returning migrants, will take care of the rest”.

“The best way to eradicate forever that economic human rights violation of giving away gasoline domestically, would be to have all citizens to participate in the revenues generated by the sale in Venezuela of gasoline at international prices”

These tweets are not just based on current realities. In 1974, as a 24 years old recently graduated MBA, I was appointed to be the first diversification manager in the Venezuelan Investment Fund that was being created to manage the oil revenues from the oil boom of those days. I resigned after only two weeks, the same day my desk arrived, already convinced by outside pressures exerted, that oil revenues redistribution profiteers would never allow the Fund to have the independence needed.

Three decades later, as an Executive Director of the World Bank 2002-04, a chair that Moisés Naím had also occupied before me, during and after the Iraq war I tried to push for an oil revenue sharing scheme as best I could. No luck, the crony statism interest of concentrating these revenues in the hands governments, were they could be more easily exploited, proved much too strong for me. 

Now Venezuela has a golden opportunity to free itself from the most malignant part of its oil curse, the excessive concentration of power in its government. I pray it is able to keep away any neo-redistribution profiteers. Let us make sure that having fallen this low we Venezuelans will aim for the stars… that way we will, as the Chinese saying goes, at least reach higher than if aiming at something seemingly more reachable.

“Venezuela would need to get rid of [all] who have latched on to every part of the state.”  What better way than assuring there is much less to latch on?

Here are some of the articles I've written and that relate to my desires about Venezuela’s future.

https://www.carnegiecouncil.org/publications/archive/policy_innovations/commentary/000083

https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2012/03/my-tax-paradise.html

https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2017/06/a-simple-but-complex-question-from.html

http://unsustainabledebtsustainability.blogspot.com/2006/05/debt-sustainability-analysis-sdl.html
https://theoilcurse.blogspot.com/2015/07/cidhdenunciasoas.html

http://theoilcurse.blogspot.com/2016/05/the-last-thing-venezuela-needs-is-to.html

A simple but complex question from a humble Venezuelan economist to any outstanding Venezuelan international lawyer

The 1999 Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic ofVenezuela establishes:

"Article 12. Mining and hydrocarbon deposits, whatever their nature, existing in the national territory, under the territorial sea bed, in the exclusive economic zone and on the continental shelf, belong to the Republic, are the property of the Public domain and, therefore, inalienable and imprescriptible. "

Suppose a Revised Constitution would establish: "Article 12. Mining and hydrocarbon deposits, whatever their nature, existing in the national territory, under the territorial sea bed, in the exclusive economic zone and on the continental shelf, belong to Venezuelan citizens, as long as they live and, therefore, inalienable and imprescriptible."

Suppose also that the current PDVSA bankruptcy and all its assets are acquired by a PDVSA II or by any other national or foreign company that, on behalf of the citizens of Venezuela, has been entrusted to extract and market that oil providentially deposited in Venezuela. 

So then a tanker would be transporting, not the oil of a sovereign country, but the oil privately owned by millions of Venezuelan citizens.  My question to expert lawyers would then be:

Could the financiers of the Bolivarian Revolution of Venezuela, or old PDVSA, embargo that tanker? Could a tanker for instance belonging to ExxonMobil, be seized by creditors of the United States or the state of Texas in the event that any of the latter fail to meet financial obligations?

Of course, current Venezuela and Pdvsa creditors would claim before judges they always lent against estimated future oil revenues. But, can a government mortgage something that the constitution itself declares as inalienable?

Would the world, knowing then that the oil revenues carried by the tanker would be delivered directly to millions of Venezuelans, the rightful owners of the oil, and which will help these to satisfy some basic human needs, like food and medicines ... allow that tanker to be embargoed in order to satisfy the cravings of a few speculating financiers?

Dear friends, our Venezuela has been ransacked. It is the obligation of every Venezuelan to seek to try to save our nation in any way we can. 

If expert lawyers respond to me with a "You’re crazy Kurowski, that’s not possible", then, shamelessly, I’ll try to find other ways.

And if that means governments’ of Venezuela will not get access to credit in the future, I would almost count that as a blessing.

And don’t tell me I did not warn the creditors before!

PS. This is loosely translated from here

The wealthy and the poor should all be interested in a Universal Basic Income scheme

What is a Universal Basic Income? It refers to a payment, made for instance monthly, to all citizens, without any differentiations based on wealth and income.

The wealthy must know that' some voluntary redistribution must occur, in order to stop involuntary redistribution from happening, and so they know that some Pro-Equality Tax on wealth and income is lurking around the corners. In this respect they have a vested interest in that the redistribution is done as cost effective as possible, so that the redistribution needs are minimized.

The poor have also a vested interest in that the redistribution is done as cost effective as possible, so  they get the most out of the redistribution.

And to top it up, the redistribution could help the real economy, and so that the wealthy could perhaps fast recover what was redistributed from them.

And to top it up, with the resulting increased demand, the poor can help the real economy to provide them with jobs and, hopefully, with opportunities for also them become wealthy.

The direct cost of redistributing by means of a Universal Basic Income should be 2 percent… tops! What current distribution performed by any government can compete with that?

That some who received the Basic Universal Income might, because of wealth and income, not merit it? So what, they only gave a gift to themselves, at a cost much less than what they ordinary pay for a tip.

Consider Universal Basic Income to be a Societal Dividend, like a dividend you get when inheriting some shares in a corporation.

Now who could be against all that? The usual redistribution profiteers of course... the redistribution mafia.

Besides a Pro-Equality Tax, there could be are many other good alternatives to how to fund a Universal Basic Income scheme.

It could for instance be funded by carbon taxes, which would help us to align the fight against inequality with the fight against climate change… and thereby also keep the climate change profiteers at bay.

And since we can almost be sure there will be lot of structural unemployment in the near future a Universal Basic Income begins to respond to the needs for worthy and decent unemployments.

And all that would provide us one great additional benefit. By keeping the social redistribution functions separate, we could have a better and more transparent oversight over how the government is performing its other functions... and that would help us to keep the government profiteers at bay, and increase our chances of getting good governments. 

It’s a win, win, win! Of course, as long as it is paid out in real money... funny money would make all worse.

Question: If only 1 million produce all the food the world needs, should only they eat, or Universal Basic (Food) Income? Would the all the rest allow the food producers to dine in calm?

PS. In my country Venezuela the poor did not get more than tops 15%, of what would have been their per capita share of some incredible oil revenues. That is why I have had enough of redistribution profiteers to last me several lifetimes. That is why I have defended net oil revenue sharing among  all citizens for soon two decades, which is nothing but a (variable) universal basic income funded with oil revenues.

My Universal Basic Income blog