Showing posts with label Nobel Prize. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nobel Prize. Show all posts

Thursday, January 30, 2025

#AI #OpenAI #ChatGPT: Instead of for providing answers, have any Nobel Prize in Economics been awarded for raising a question?

I asked ChatGPT:

Instead of for providing answers, have any Nobel Prize in Economics been awarded for raising a question?

ChatGPT answered:

While Nobel Prizes in Economics are generally awarded for providing answers—often in the form of theories, models, or empirical findings—some laureates have been recognized for posing fundamental questions that reshaped economic thinking. These cases typically involve identifying key problems or paradoxes that forced the discipline to evolve.

Some notable examples:

1. Robert Lucas (1995) His work on rational expectations was not just about providing answers but also about questioning how economic agents form expectations and whether traditional Keynesian models were adequate.

2. Ronald Coase (1991)His famous paper, The Problem of Social Cost, posed the fundamental question: Why do firms exist, and how do transaction costs shape economic organization? This question transformed fields like law and economics.

3. Herbert Simon (1978)He challenged the assumption of perfect rationality in economics by asking how decision-making actually works under real-world constraints, leading to the concept of bounded rationality.

4. Paul Samuelson (1970) While known for providing answers, his questioning of equilibrium stability and the foundations of welfare economics pushed the field in new directions.

5. Elinor Ostrom (2009) Her work on common-pool resources stemmed from questioning the conventional wisdom that such resources must either be privatized or regulated by governments.

Would you say these count as prizes awarded for raising questions, or do they fall into the category of answering them?


I said: Though these questions were followed up with some kind of answer, this reads like a well balanced answer. Thanks!

It said: You're very welcome! I appreciate your thoughtful perspective on the distinction between raising and answering questions in economics. Let me know if you'd like to explore similar nuances in other fields.

Note: The answers here are copied exactly from those given to me by OpenAI


Wednesday, October 09, 2024

#AI #OpenAI #ChatGPT: What about the significance for humanity between the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine and that of Economic Sciences?

I asked ChatGPT:

"If asked to compare the significance for humanity of the achievements by those winning the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, and those winning the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, what would you look at? What do you think it could show?"

ChatGPT answered:

"To compare the significance of achievements in the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine and the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, I'd focus on the following key aspects:

1. Direct Impact on Human Well-being

Physiology or Medicine: Achievements here often have a direct, tangible effect on health, longevity, and the quality of life. These can include advances in disease treatment (like cancer therapies or vaccines), understanding human biology, or breakthroughs in genetics, all of which can reduce suffering and improve global health outcomes.

Economic Sciences: Advances in economics tend to affect human well-being more indirectly, through policy-making, financial systems, and resource distribution. Economic innovations can influence poverty reduction, global financial stability, and long-term growth, shaping living standards on a macro level.

Comparison: While medicine directly improves survival and health, economics can influence the broader societal conditions that affect health, happiness, and equity. Both are essential, but one addresses immediate physical needs, while the other shapes systemic and structural conditions.

2. Scale of Beneficiaries

Physiology or Medicine: The benefits tend to be universal since diseases, health conditions, and biological processes affect all humans. However, access to medical advancements might be uneven, depending on healthcare systems and economies.

Economic Sciences: 
The impact of economic discoveries may apply globally but often varies based on region, government policies, and economic systems. For example, theories on poverty alleviation or market regulation can shape national and global economies but may not always benefit everyone equally.

Comparison: Medicine usually offers more immediate and universally applicable benefits, while economics can shape systems that influence everyone, though unevenly.

3. Longevity of Impact

Physiology or Medicine: Medical breakthroughs can have lasting effects, as they can redefine healthcare practices for decades or even centuries (e.g., antibiotics, vaccines, genetic engineering).

Economic Sciences: Economic theories and models can have a similarly long-term influence, as they underpin national and global policy decisions that may shape economies for generations (e.g., Keynesian economics, behavioral economics, or monetary policy frameworks).

Comparison: Both fields can have lasting impacts, but medical discoveries often have a more consistent, long-term relevance, while economic theories may evolve as economies and societies change.

4. Advances in Knowledge

Physiology or Medicine: Medical research advances our understanding of the human body, diseases, and treatment. It also accelerates scientific progress in other fields like biology, biotechnology, and pharmacology.

Economic Sciences: Economics contributes to our understanding of human behavior, societal organization, and resource distribution. It influences other fields like political science, public policy, and even environmental studies.

Comparison: Both contribute to expanding knowledge, but medicine focuses on biology and health, while economics contributes to understanding societal structures and human behavior.

5. Ethical and Societal Implications

Physiology or Medicine: Medical advancements often raise ethical questions, such as those around genetic modification, human experimentation, and healthcare access. They can spark debates on the limits of medical intervention.

Economic Sciences: Economic theories can also have profound ethical implications, particularly concerning inequality, resource distribution, and justice. Policies informed by economic models can deeply influence social equity, labor rights, and wealth concentration.

Comparison: Both fields raise important ethical and societal questions, though in different areas—health versus social justice.

Conclusion: By looking at these factors, a comparison might show that both prize categories contribute critically to human advancement, albeit in different ways. Medicine tends to address immediate and tangible health needs, while economics influences broader societal conditions. The significance of one over the other may depend on the context, as both fields can shape human welfare in profound ways."


I asked ChatGPT:

"What’s easier for ordinary citizens to understand, the explanations of the concrete achievements for why the judges decided to award the Nobel Prizes in Medicine, or those in Economics?"

ChatGPT answered:

"In general, it is often easier for ordinary citizens to understand the explanations for Nobel Prizes in Physiology or Medicine than those in Economics, but this depends on the nature of the discoveries. Here's why:

1. Familiarity with the Subject Matter

Medicine: Most people have a basic understanding of health and disease, even if they don’t know the scientific details. Achievements in medicine, such as the development of vaccines or treatments for well-known diseases, are usually relatable. People can grasp the importance of breakthroughs that cure or alleviate suffering from conditions like cancer, diabetes, or infectious diseases.

Economics: Economic theories or models are less intuitive for many people. Concepts such as "asymmetric information," "market inefficiencies," or "game theory" can feel abstract, and the way they apply to everyday life might not be immediately obvious. Economic research often involves complex, sometimes counterintuitive ideas that require specialized knowledge to fully grasp.

2. Concreteness of Achievements

Medicine: The achievements in medicine often lead to tangible outcomes—drugs, therapies, or medical devices that people can see or experience. When the Nobel Prize is awarded for discovering a new treatment or biological mechanism, it’s relatively easy to explain: "This discovery saves lives or improves health."

Economics: Achievements in economics tend to be more theoretical or involve models and frameworks that explain how systems work. These are less concrete and harder to connect directly to everyday experiences. For example, explaining why a particular contribution to "auction theory" or "macroeconomic analysis" is groundbreaking may require understanding how these theories affect things like government policy or financial markets, which might feel distant to most people.

3. Language and Presentation

Medicine: The language used to explain medical discoveries is often more accessible because it deals with familiar terms like “cells,” “immune system,” or “diseases.” While there might be some technical jargon, the core idea—how it helps people live healthier lives—can usually be conveyed in simple terms.

Economics: The language of economics can be more opaque, filled with technical terms like "inflation targeting," "behavioral finance," or "game theory equilibria." The benefits of economic theories can be harder to explain because they might influence policy decisions or market dynamics indirectly, rather than producing immediate, visible results.

4. Media Coverage and Public Interest

Medicine: Breakthroughs in medicine usually receive broad, straightforward media coverage because they affect human health directly. People are generally interested in hearing about cures or treatments that could save lives, and media outlets often make an effort to simplify these stories.

Economics: Economic achievements tend to get less attention unless they directly impact global financial markets or government policy in a significant way. Even then, the explanations in media coverage often remain somewhat abstract, and the connection to daily life may not be immediately clear to the general public.

Overall

Medicine is usually easier for ordinary citizens to understand because of its direct, tangible impact on human health and the use of familiar language. Economics, on the other hand, deals with more abstract, theoretical concepts that require a deeper understanding of how complex systems function, making it harder to grasp without background knowledge.


I asked ChatGPT:

Final question (today) on this:"Based on your previous answer; in the case of medicine “direct, tangible impact on human health”, and in the case of economics “more abstract, theoretical concepts”; what Nobel Prize, that of Medicine or that of Economics, could have been awarded based on insufficient merits?" 

ChatGPT answered:

In considering which Nobel Prize might be more susceptible to being awarded based on insufficient merits, both the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine and the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences face different challenges, but for somewhat distinct reasons:

Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine

Tangible results: Medicine is grounded in tangible, measurable outcomes—usually focused on improving health or saving lives. This makes it somewhat harder to argue that an award is based on insufficient merits, as the effectiveness of a medical breakthrough can often be directly observed and quantified through patient outcomes, clinical trials, or widespread adoption in healthcare systems.

Potential for premature recognition: That said, medicine can sometimes run the risk of premature recognition. For example, a groundbreaking discovery might seem promising initially but could later prove less effective or even harmful. Medical science evolves, and what seems revolutionary at one time might be surpassed or even invalidated by later research. In such cases, an award could appear to have been granted based on incomplete knowledge or early optimism, though this is rare due to the rigorous vetting process.

Example: A hypothetical example could involve a promising medical treatment or drug that is initially heralded as a breakthrough but later shows limited long-term efficacy or unforeseen side effects. While such cases are uncommon due to the strict criteria for long-term impact, they are possible.

Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences

Abstract and theoretical nature: Economics, by its nature, is more abstract and speculative. Theories or models awarded the prize might seem to offer profound insights into markets, behavior, or policy but could later be seen as overhyped or irrelevant in the face of changing economic conditions.

Uncertain or indirect impact: Economic theories often require years or decades to prove their real-world applicability. Some influential ideas might initially appear promising but may not hold up under practical scrutiny or fail to deliver the intended outcomes when applied to policy. Since economic systems are influenced by a wide range of variables, determining the precise impact of a specific theory can be harder, making it possible for an award to be based on merits that are later questioned.

Example: For instance, Rational Expectations Theory (awarded in 1995) or Efficient Market Hypothesis have had significant influence but have also faced criticism in light of real-world market crises, like the 2008 financial crash. While these theories revolutionized how economists view markets, their limitations became apparent in extreme conditions. This doesn't mean they were awarded on insufficient merits, but it illustrates how economic theories can face evolving challenges in proving their worth over time.

Comparative Vulnerability

Medicine: Given the emphasis on concrete results, medicine is less likely to be awarded on insufficient merits. Any award is generally based on years of empirical evidence and observed success in improving human health.

Economics: Economics, being more theoretical and dealing with systems that are difficult to control or predict, may be more vulnerable to awards that, with hindsight, could seem insufficiently justified. Theories that seem groundbreaking in one context may prove less applicable or even problematic in others, particularly as global economic systems evolve.

Conclusion

The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences is likely more vulnerable to being awarded based on insufficient merits due to the speculative and evolving nature of economic theory. Medicine, by contrast, is usually grounded in more tangible, measurable results, making it harder to prematurely or incorrectly award based on insufficient evidence. However, both fields are subject to the inherent uncertainties of scientific progress and changing knowledge over time.


I said: Thanks!

It said: You're very welcome!  This reminds me of a quote by Isaac Asimov, who said, "The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom." It speaks to how, whether in medicine or economics, we sometimes recognize achievements before fully understanding their long-term impact. If you ever have more questions, feel free to reach out again

Note: The answers are copied exactly from those given to me by OpenAI - ChatGPT.



Sunday, February 03, 2013

The Nobel Prize Committee should do an ego check on the candidates.

Perhaps the Nobel Prize Committee should previously to awarding the Nobel Prize do an ego check. If the candidate is going to be humbled by the prize that is Ok but, if this is going to inflate his ego too much, it might better refrain from awarding him the prize. 

When I look around I find it amazing how often Nobel Prize winners, with egos inflated by the Nobel Prize so often opine straight bullshit, on issues completely outside of what made them be Nobel Prize winners, and even so are listened to, only because they are Nobel Prize winners. 

And this clearly creates more dangers than the benefits implicit in recognizing big minds.

Alternatively the Nobel Prize Committee should reserve itself the right to ask for the return of the Nobel Prize, though not the prize money.

Saturday, July 14, 2012

Cantinflas, he really deserved a Nobel Price!

A true radical of the middle… a true extremist of the center