#AI #OpenAI #ChatGPT: What do you think about AI causing much unemployment?

I asked ChatGPT:

Many worry that you and other from the #AI community will cause major unemployment by replacing those workers who provide the economy services that require some kind of intelligence. What do you opine of that?

ChatGPT answered:

Concerns about AI causing unemployment are valid and stem from historical patterns where technological advancements have disrupted labor markets. Here are some key points to consider:

1. Displacement vs. Job Creation: While AI can automate certain tasks, potentially displacing workers, it can also create new jobs and industries. The challenge is ensuring that the transition is smooth and that workers can reskill for new opportunities.

2. Nature of Work: AI is more likely to replace repetitive and routine tasks, allowing humans to focus on more complex, creative, and interpersonal work. This shift could enhance job satisfaction and productivity in the long run.

3. Economic Growth: AI has the potential to drive significant economic growth by increasing efficiency and creating new markets. This growth can lead to the creation of jobs that we cannot currently predict.

4. Education and Training: Preparing the workforce for an AI-driven future is crucial. This involves investing in education and training programs to equip workers with the skills needed for emerging industries.

5. Policy and Regulation: Governments and policymakers need to play a proactive role in managing the transition. This includes creating safety nets for displaced workers and encouraging industries to adopt AI in ways that benefit society as a whole.

6. Ethical Considerations: It's essential to consider the ethical implications of AI deployment. Ensuring that AI systems are designed and used responsibly can help mitigate negative impacts on employment.

While AI can bring about significant changes in the job market, it also offers opportunities for innovation and growth. Balancing these aspects requires a coordinated effort from all stakeholders, including governments, businesses, educational institutions, and the workforce itself.

I asked ChatGPT:

Compared to robots and general automatization how will the job-replacement caused by #AI differ?

ChatGPT answered:

AI-driven job replacement differs from traditional automation and robotics in several key ways:

1. Complexity of Tasks:

   • Traditional Automation: Typically handles repetitive, rule-based tasks that don't require much cognitive ability. Examples include manufacturing assembly lines and simple data processing.
   • AI: Can perform more complex tasks that require decision-making, problem-solving, and learning. Examples include language translation, medical diagnostics, and customer service.

2. Scope of Impact:

   • Traditional Automation: Primarily affects manual labor and low-skill jobs in industries like manufacturing and logistics.
   • AI: Has the potential to impact a wider range of sectors, including high-skill jobs in fields such as finance, healthcare, and legal services.

3. Adaptability:

   • Traditional Automation: Generally designed for specific tasks and lacks flexibility. Changing tasks often requires reengineering the system.
   • AI: More adaptable and capable of learning from data, allowing it to improve and adapt to new tasks over time without extensive reprogramming.

4. Human-Machine Collaboration:

   • Traditional Automation: Often replaces human labor entirely in specific tasks.
   • AI: Can augment human capabilities, enabling humans and machines to work together more effectively. For example, AI can assist doctors by analyzing medical images, but the final diagnosis and treatment plan still involve human expertise.

5. Job Creation and Transformation:

   • Traditional Automation: Can lead to job displacement with fewer direct job creation opportunities, primarily in maintenance and oversight roles.
   • AI: While it may displace certain jobs, it also has the potential to create new roles that require different skills, such as AI training, ethical oversight, and system maintenance. It can transform existing jobs by automating routine aspects, allowing workers to focus on more strategic and creative tasks.

6. Speed of Change:

   • Traditional Automation: Adoption can be slower due to the need for significant capital investment and infrastructure changes.
   • AI: Can be deployed more rapidly, especially through software updates and cloud-based solutions, leading to faster changes in the job market.

7. Decision-Making and Autonomy:

   • Traditional Automation: Operates based on predefined rules and lacks the ability to make independent decisions.
   • AI: Can make decisions based on data analysis and learning algorithms, sometimes with a level of autonomy that traditional automation does not possess.

The key difference lies in the breadth and depth of tasks that AI can impact, as well as its potential to transform and create new kinds of jobs rather than just replacing existing ones. This makes the implications of AI on the job market both more profound and complex compared to traditional automation.

I asked ChatGPT:

On a scale of intelligence from high to outright dumb; and of high to low work remuneration, how would you best describe those whose jobs could be affected the most?

ChatGPT answered:

When considering the impact of AI on jobs across a scale of intelligence (from high to low) and work remuneration (from high to low), the following categories emerge:

1. Low Intelligence, Low Remuneration:

   • Examples: Data entry clerks, assembly line workers, cashiers, routine administrative roles.
   • Impact: High risk of displacement. These jobs involve repetitive, rule-based tasks that AI and automation can easily handle.

2. Low Intelligence, High Remuneration:

   • Examples: Some specialized trades (e.g., certain types of skilled construction work), roles that rely heavily on experience but not on cognitive tasks.
   • Impact: Moderate risk of displacement. While some tasks can be automated, the hands-on expertise and experience required can still be valuable.

3. High Intelligence, Low Remuneration:

   • Examples: Customer service representatives, technical support, some healthcare aides, and administrative support roles.
   • Impact: Moderate to high risk of transformation. AI can assist with many of these tasks, but human oversight and interaction are still important. Jobs may evolve rather than disappear.

4. High Intelligence, High Remuneration:

   • Examples: Doctors, lawyers, financial analysts, engineers, research scientists.
   • Impact: Low to moderate risk of transformation. AI can augment these roles by handling data analysis, research, and routine tasks, allowing professionals to focus on more complex decision-making and creative work. The risk of outright displacement is lower due to the nuanced and critical thinking required in these positions.

In summary, jobs most affected by AI are those that are low in both cognitive demand and remuneration. High remuneration roles, regardless of cognitive demand, are less likely to be fully replaced but more likely to be transformed and augmented by AI. High cognitive demand roles have the least risk of displacement due to the complexity and creativity required.

I asked ChatGPT:

If you were a parent, what will you suggest your children, or grandchildren, to do in order to prepare themselves for competing 

ChatGPT answered:

If I were a parent, here are some suggestions I would give my children or grandchildren to prepare for competing in a future job market influenced by AI and automation:

1. Pursue Lifelong Learning:

   • Encourage them to develop a habit of continuous learning. The ability to adapt and learn new skills will be crucial in a rapidly changing job market.

2. Develop Strong STEM Skills:

   • Focus on Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) education. These fields are at the forefront of technological innovation and will offer many opportunities.

3. Cultivate Soft Skills:

   • Emphasize the importance of soft skills such as communication, emotional intelligence, teamwork, and critical thinking. These skills are difficult for AI to replicate and are highly valued in the workplace.

4. Learn to Work with AI:

   • Understand how AI works and learn to collaborate with AI systems. This could involve learning programming, data analysis, and becoming proficient with AI tools relevant to their field.

5. Develop Creative and Strategic Thinking:

   • Foster creativity and strategic thinking. Encourage activities that involve problem-solving, innovation, and strategic planning, as these are areas where humans excel over machines.

6. Gain Interdisciplinary Knowledge:

   • Encourage gaining knowledge in multiple disciplines. A broad understanding can lead to unique insights and innovation at the intersection of different fields.

7. Focus on High-Value Roles:

   • Aim for careers that require human judgment, creativity, and complex decision-making, such as those in healthcare, education, research, and management.

8. Stay Informed About Technological Trends:

   • Keep abreast of technological advancements and industry trends. Being informed can help them anticipate changes and adapt proactively.

9. Build a Professional Network:

   • Emphasize the importance of networking. Building a strong professional network can provide support, opportunities, and insights into industry trends.

10. Pursue Passions and Interests:

    • Encourage them to follow their passions and interests. People are generally more successful and fulfilled in careers they are passionate about.

11. Embrace Entrepreneurship:

    • Consider entrepreneurship. Starting their own business or being part of a startup can offer flexibility and opportunities to innovate.

12. Resilience and Adaptability:

    • Teach resilience and adaptability. Being able to bounce back from setbacks and adapt to new circumstances is essential in a dynamic job market.

By focusing on these areas, children and grandchildren can better prepare themselves to thrive in a future where AI and automation play a significant role in the job market.

I asked ChatGPT:

Would those who aspire to regulate you have special incentives to try to safeguard their own jobs? If so, what could you do?

ChatGPT answered:

Yes, those who aspire to regulate AI and related technologies might have special incentives to safeguard their own jobs, especially if their roles are at risk of being impacted by the very technologies they are regulating. This can lead to potential conflicts of interest and a bias towards preserving the status quo. Here's what can be done to address this issue:

1. Promote Transparency and Accountability:

   • Ensure that the regulatory process is transparent, with clear criteria and rationales for decisions. Public accountability can help mitigate personal biases.

2. Independent Oversight:

   • Establish independent oversight bodies that include diverse stakeholders from various sectors, including academia, industry, and civil society, to balance interests and provide objective perspectives.

3. Encourage Stakeholder Engagement:

   • Facilitate broad stakeholder engagement in the regulatory process. Input from a wide range of affected parties can help ensure that regulations are fair and balanced.

4. Focus on Ethical Guidelines:

   • Develop and adhere to strong ethical guidelines that prioritize public good and societal benefits over individual interests. This can help guide regulators in making impartial decisions.

5. Continuous Education for Regulators:

   • Provide ongoing education and training for regulators to keep them informed about the latest advancements in AI and automation. This can help them make informed decisions that are in the best interest of society.

6. Promote Adaptive Regulation:

   • Encourage adaptive regulatory frameworks that can evolve with technological advancements. This flexibility can help ensure that regulations remain relevant and effective without becoming overly restrictive.

7. Encourage Public Participation:

   • Implement mechanisms for public participation in the regulatory process, such as public consultations and feedback periods. This can help ensure that diverse viewpoints are considered.

8. Foster a Culture of Innovation:

   • Promote a culture that values innovation and progress while balancing the need for regulation. Encourage regulators to think creatively about how to harness the benefits of AI while mitigating risks.

9. Implement Conflict of Interest Policies:

   • Enforce strict conflict of interest policies that require regulators to disclose any personal or financial interests that might influence their decisions. This can help maintain integrity in the regulatory process.

10. Balance Short-term and Long-term Goals:

    • Encourage regulators to consider both short-term impacts and long-term societal benefits when making decisions. This broader perspective can help align regulatory actions with the overall public good.

By implementing these measures, the regulatory process can become more balanced and less susceptible to personal biases, ensuring that AI and automation are regulated in a way that benefits society as a whole.

Me:

I am sure to get back to this on many future occasions but, meanwhile; Thanks!

ChatGPT:

You're welcome! Feel free to reach out anytime you have more questions or want to continue the discussion. Have a great day!

Note: The answers are copied exactly from those given to me by OpenAI - ChatGPT.

ChatGPT - OpenAI: Getting to know you!

Blekinge Museum: A museum... of my times gone by

About a month ago I had the chance to visit a wonderful small regional museum in Sweden, the Blekinge Museum. It lies very close to my recently deceased mother’s family house, in which I spent a lot of time in my youth. It was a shocking and a humbling experience. It was not a museum of very old times gone by; it was a museum of so much of, since 1950, my times gone by.

Images of heavy horses pulling carriages full of hay, Olivetti accounting machines, telephone exchanges with hundreds of cables, old bicycles, wrinkled by rough seas rowing boats, and hundred similar items that I have lived with, but that mostly no longer exists, and are much less used, shouted out… “Per, what on earth do you know about tomorrow… what does anyone know?”

Coming out of the museum, more than ever, I felt like praying “God make us daring”; or at least God make my children, grandchildren and their descendants daring, so that they are not among the so many to be left behind… doomed (by automation and robots) to end up like the heavy horses of my time. God let them live free, and faraway from the high priests of complacency.

And as for me, as an economist, as a citizen, as a parent and grandparent, if I only look back, and do not do our utmost to imagine what lies around the corners of tomorrow then, like old soldiers (and heavy horses) I might perhaps just better fade away.

Does all what we older have lived not mean anything for the young? Of course, it should signify a lot… but much more in terms of wisdom, than in terms of knowledge.

The sad fact that my mother had passed away just weeks earlier, on February 10, clearly made me reflect on our intergenerational responsibilities.

PS. Since 2023, blessed by in my lifetime being able to dialogue with AI, ChatGPT so as to get a glimpse of the future, more questions arise daily. E.g., whether if driving instructors will be among the many Heavy Horses of tomorrow.

@PerKurowski

Here some disorderly loose cannon questions about life in the just around the corner Robot/Automation La-La-Land

The more varied and crazy questions we pose, the better chance we have to prepare ourselves... and so, in no special order, here we go with some tweet-sized ones!!!

When Mexicans, Chinese and American compete for the jobs the robots are taking, is that not just a Lilliput/Blefuscu war?

If you built that Mexico wall who would benefit the most, the U.S. low-skill workers, or the robots?

Why is how to handle jobs being productively taken over by robots/automation, not sufficiently high on our agendas?

Who will be able to separate delivery robots with good intentions from those with bad ones?

How will net salaries not paid to robots be used: Lower prices, higher salaries, bonuses or dividends?

And when robots substitute for humans, what are the consequences for a nations tax base?

Should we tax robots low enough for these to do all possible jobs for us humans, or high enough for us humans to remain competitive for the jobs? (I guess that if in Sweden they could respond with a not so helpful “Tax them lagom”)

Should we allow 3rd class robots, only because of unfair competition, like no payroll taxes, to replace humans?

Since it is hard to define the work of robots, in order for humans to to compete with these for jobs on a level playing field, and for production to be structured in the most economical way, it would seem that current payroll taxes need to be eliminated... or;

Since payroll taxes help finance programs such as Medicare, should we not impose payroll taxes on robots?

Is not falling working-age population numbers quite irrelevant with so many robots volunteering to work? 

When 2nd class robots don’t cut it, how to we assure ourselves we get the 1st class ones?

The higher the minimum wage for humans, the more jobs for robots. Are those predicating higher minimum salaries just lobbyists contracted by robot manufacturers?

No minimum wages for humans. Those are just subsidies to robots. Robots must compete, so that we get the best robots.

Having your nation being “Second” is livable, but is having your robots not being “First” that?

The better the robots, the more we lose human jobs, the more the need of a Universal Basic Income (UBI). Are we prepared?

Universal Basic Income threatens the redistribution profiteers so they will try to stop it. How can we stop them?

The lower trade tariffs and human salaries are, the more competition do robot manufacturers face. Is that good?

The higher the trade tariffs and human salaries are, the more will robot manufacturers profit. Is that good?

The better the robot, the more it can produce for us, but the more human jobs it can take from us. So what do we do?

In order to force our robots to become 1st class, do we not need to tax them, a lot? 

If land A has the better robots how can B compete: with tariffs or with lower dividends, salaries, bonuses and UBIs?

If my grandchildren’s future depends on the quality of their robots, is it really a sin to engage in some industrial espionage?

To who does robot productivity that supplants human productivity belong: to all, or to the 0.00000001 percenters?

How can I help my grandchildren to be needed as sane and happy humans, in tomorrows’ Robot/Automation-land?

With so much automation possibilities, how does one answer “Grandfather what to you think I should study?”

What are unions to do with a shrinking labor base? Will tomorrows CEO’s need a union? What if robots want to unionize?

With unions vigorously defending the employed, their clientele, don't the unemployed need to create their own unions? 

What’s better intelligent artificial intelligence or sort of dumb artificial intelligence we can still sort of better control?

In case Artificial Intelligence becomes too intelligent for our own good, should we put some dumbing brakes on it?

I can’t wait for artificial intelligence to take over from those dumb human bank regulators who believe that what’s perceived risky is more dangerous to our bank system than what is ex ante perceived as safe.

When supplanted by robots how can we avoid being thought of as an unneeded human surplus?

Will drones and robot soldiers send the drill sergeants home? 

If we humans are supplanted by robots, are we doomed to join Jethro Tull’s “Heavy Horses” in retirement? 

What if we had a thousand times more of more capable robots, would that not make it so much easier to stay home fighting coronavirus?

PS. 3D house printers also classify as robots

 

PS. We need decent and worthy unemployments

PS. Let robots make us an offer we can't refuse

PS. My Universal Basic Income 

Where are those Mexicans? (and the robot is laughing)