Forget the market for a while

The financial markets are continually boasting about having the best information available. They are right, but this continuous improvement in their capability to disseminate information comes at the cost of too much data too quickly. This results in an increased sense of the short term and no long-term vision.

It is only this that could possibly explain why today’s financial markets would impose interest rates on a country’s foreign debt that are so high that they can only be justified by the premise that the corresponding debt is to be repaid immediately and all at once. This is the case of Venezuela, a country with relatively little external debt.

This particular problem of disinformation in an era of information has resulted in an increasing volatility of the short-term capital market. This in turn has caused financial crises in many of the emerging markets and is being closely studied by many of the world’s monetary authorities.

In an article titled The Reform of International Financial Architecture published in Madrid’s newspaper ABC, Robert Rubin, former Secretary of the Treasury of the United States, recognizes the market’s basic responsibility, declaring that he is convinced about the need for government intervention in order to insure a better-market performance.

Mr. Rubin states that it continues to be necessary to solve the shortfalls in the risk valuation that have contributed to the worsening of the recent crisis and suggests that intervention should be made in the form of better international directives (i.e., the Basel Committee) which would increase dependency on long term loans instead of short-term financing. This type of intervention seems to me to be rather timid.

As a citizen of a country that due to internal and external causes finds itself in a bit of a mess, I wish to take advantage of the appointment of Mr. Lawrence Summers as new Secretary of the Treasury to ask him be more proactive.

For example, we would advance in leaps and bounds towards Mr. Rubin’s objectives should the United States guarantee the underwriting of a Venezuelan debt issue for US$ 25 billion with 30 year maturities with which Venezuela would repay all current debt that carries shorter maturities, which would make Venezuela one of the most solvent debtors in the world, which would make its debt instruments among the most attractive in international markets, which would insure that these could be placed at reasonable rates, which would allow the United States to free itself of any and all obligations thus obtained in a matter of minutes or hours.

Impossible, you say? Today, a firm that sells books, with no major asset base, and without immediate prospects of turning a profit is valued by the capital markets at US$ 30 billion, based primarily on its presence on the glamorous Internet. I simply cannot believe that the United States and Venezuela together cannot jointly put together an operation and negotiate the appropriate guarantees so that all parties come out smelling like roses.

I think that the majority of the authorities, government officials, professionals and individuals like Rubin, Summers and, modestly, myself, respect the free-market forces and system but also believe that it is sometimes necessary to promote government intervention. Where we may differ is in how this intervention should be enacted and how these two agents, market and government, should interact.

For example, over the last decades, the perception has been that a country like Venezuela should be very attuned to the requirements of a sophisticated financial international market. Attaining this markets approval would theoretically ensure that this country is on the right road to development and prosperity.

I believe this has been exaggerated. A country like Venezuela, which banks basically on one exportable product, has certain internal advantages and strategic strengths.

There is no reason why this country should bow to market forces. It has the right, and even the duty, to develop other options to ensure development that don’t necessarily include the markets.

Perhaps our problem today is not Venezuela’s external debt per se, perhaps our problem is the market. Faced with this reality, let us go out and negotiate options, government to government. This does not have to include subsidies or hand-outs. These options can very well be developed in an economically more reasonable atmosphere than that present in today’s market.

Not much added value to the value added tax on Margarita Island

If there is anything that has to do with economics that has been proven with absolute clarity over the last few decades is the unsurpassable capacity of the Venezuelan State to misspend its resources. 

In this sense, an recipe for getting ourselves out of this inherited economic disaster that begins with the transfer of additional resources to the government is utterly incomprehensible to me, and I am a fierce enemy of all new taxation, even more so when we are talking about the Value Added Tax (IVA) that does not provide even the slightest redistribution of income.

However, in the case of the Island of Margarita, I refuse to spend much of my energy in protesting the recently decreed VAT. My reasons? As the say in local argot, what’s one more stripe for a tiger?

In Venezuela today, tourism is the only sector that promises the potential of creating so many externally competitive and productive jobs. The Dominican Republic’s income from tourism during last year was in the neighborhood of US$ 2.5 billion. There is no question that today we should be rallying the entire country around a National Plan for Tourism, centered principally in Margarita.

But no! In September of last year, instead of investing in a submarine cable to Margarita from the mainland so as to be able to supply the island with cheap energy (a public service of utmost importance to tourism), the latter divested in tourism when it blithely sent the US$ 60 million obtained from the privatization of its power company to the National Treasury. Margarita’s hotels often spend more for power than they do in covering its payroll.

A real plan to promote tourism on the island would focus everyone on finding solutions for getting water to the island’s population and hotels cheaply and securely. This could, for example, be done either by installing a new pipeline under the sea from the mainland financed by multilateral entities or by offering to supply free or cheap gas which would permit the fueling of desalination plants that would not be ruinously expensive. Today, all we see are plans to install gas lines so as to be able to sell gas to the island at international prices.

Anyone that had a real interest in promoting tourism on Margarita would not allow the Bolivar to overvalue to the point that the only tourism promoted is the international tourism of Venezuelans.

Anyone that had a real interest in promoting tourism on Margarita would have offered fuel at marginal cost to all international flights that come from more that 1,000 kilometers away, that carry 100 tourists that will stay for over one week. In Europe, for every 100 units paid for gasoline by the consumer, only 10 goes to the producer of the same. I am sure that each barrel “given as a gift to tourism” would be economically more beneficial to the country than its direct sale.

More investment in Margarita would create more jobs. Instead, mediocre advisors recommend the application of the VAT for Margarita in the name of anti-national national solidarity and based on minor issues that only promote equality downwards. Even some representatives of the private sector applaud the application of another tax.

But all is not lost. On this marvelous island, where the ingenuity and genes of its native and assimilated population are put to work full time to confront all this adversity with spunk and elan, new promotional strategies are being designed and produced on a daily basis.

We are all aware of the fiscal pressures imposed on the European tourist at home. A new attraction is now being developed in Margarita; a new variant of adventure tourism called Fiscal Tourism.

Today, thanks to the VAT, Margarita can offer the European Tourist the tropical and liberating experience of being able to participate in tax evasion. Very soon, merchants on Margarita will offer Evasion Receipts, which will most surely be souvenirs, competing directly with any of the dried and lacquered fish sold at any souvenir shop in the Caribbean. 

Local groups are studying the possibility of raffling a citation by the SENIAT among every 5,000 tourists. It must be exciting for any German from Stuttgart to be able to frame and hang this citation from the tax authorities. This is much better than trophies such as the head of an African antelope no matter how wide its horns may be.

For Heaven’s sake, let us create some added value on the island before we think of taxing it!

http://ourcaribbean.blogspot.com/1999/05/not-much-added-value-to-tax-on.html

All bureaucrats should be created equal

In the second volume of his autobiography titled “The Invisible Writing”, the European intellectual Arthur Koestler (1905-1983) writes about the time during the early thirties when a primitive town, in the area of Pamir in the south of Central Asia, received the visit of a Russian patrol unit mounted on bicycles. 

The local folk ran away in total terror. During their lives they had seen many airplanes, but never a bicycle. The planes were seen to be simple machines and so they seemed quite normal. 

However, the fact that a person could glide along on two wheels without touching the ground could only be explained by the intervention of Satan himself.

Thirty years have gone by since I read about this incident which I believe illustrates in a curious way a less than harmonious development. 

Since then, I have been repeatedly reminded of this by living in a country such as ours, where the modern lives together with the antiquated without any complex whatsoever. Obviously, our public administration has been a fertile area in this sense.

Last year I had the opportunity to visit both the recently created Banco de Comercio Exterior (Bancoex) as well as the National Institute for Minors (INAM). Without going into which of the two entities is of more importance for the country, the differences between the two were so great that they seemed abominable to me.

I cannot faithfully express the magnitude of the surrealism, but it should be sufficient to say that Bancoex has modern offices, systems employing the latest technologies and an organization with staff selected with the assistance of an international advisory firm while the INAM, accessible only by means of a rickety elevator which takes of every half an hour towards the 42nd floor of one of the towers of Parque Central, has papered its walls with wall to wall Oslo type files labeled with things like “Invoices – Meat Purchases Month of February 1994”.

If a government determines that it must assume the direct responsibility of fulfilling two specific functions, whichever they may be, it should at least try to do both with the same enthusiasm and with the same service standards. 

We are constantly harping about the fact that we should fight to narrow the social gap in income distribution that creates first class and second class citizens. 

Likewise, it is equally as important to avoid creating first class bureaucrats and second class bureaucrats. Sometimes I believe we even have third class bureaucrats.

This does not mean I am promoting automatic and irrational equality as far as salaries of public officials is concerned. It has much more to do with the identification of the role and the social support given each public servant in order to stimulate his or her pride. 

He who thinks or feels that other believe his work is not important, or who is actually doing work that is indeed not important and should therefore be eliminated is as incapacitated emotionally as a baseball player who has lost his arms.

In the same way, as we head towards the Constituent Assembly which initiates the debate on the role of the State it is of utmost importance to establish the norms and regulations that require the State to comply with its current responsibilities before it is permitted to accept new ones. 

Should we not do this, we should not be surprised about the capacity of certain sectors to negotiate resources that allow them to incur in new initiatives that normally possess noteworthy or glamorous characteristics at the expense of other that, although no less important, require quiet dedication, day after day, from 9 to 5.

I now wish to share with my readers a nightmare I have over and over again. During the last decades, the Venezuelan State has frittered away an immense amount of resources. 

Thank God that in spite of this, most of the spending occurred in public service sectors and that therefore it did actually leave something, however small, for posterity. Does this mean that if the State actually goes full tilt into privatizing public services (at the behest of ourselves) without having previously negotiated a corresponding reduction in their income, 100% of public spending will be wasted?

The town folk in Pamir did not bat an eyelash when airplanes roared overhead. They did not know that human beings were strapped inside at the controls.

Had they known this, the panic would have been absolute. I sometimes think about the high expectations we have of the privatization processes in Venezuela. Are we by chance also ignorant of the fact that there are human beings in these private companies?

I cannot resist finalizing with a quote that I underlined almost thirty years ago in the before above mentioned book by Koestler. 

“I automatically learned to classify all that is repugnant as an »inheritance from the past», and all that is attractive as the »seed of the future». With the aid of this automatic classification, it was still possible for a European in 1932 to visit Russia and continue to be a communist.”

Daily Journal, Caracas, May 7, 1999

Virtual tulipomania in New York City

I was told  this week that New York was more beautiful than ever. The tulips planted all along Park Avenue were in full bloom in a kaleidoscope of colors.

By chance, I also read this week about the share price of one particular firm reaching the skies on a stock exchange in New York. Both things conspired to remind me of a book by John Kenneth Galbraith, A Short History of Financial Euphoria.

This book addresses a curious speculative process, which took place in  Holland around the year 1630 and which revolved around tulip bulbs. of one particular chapter of the book, The Tulipomania, I have extracted the following quotes:

“Speculation, it has been noted, comes when popular imagination settles on something seemingly new in the field of commerce or finance.” “. . . by 1636, a bulb of no previously apparent worth might be exchanged for ‘a new carriage, two grey horses and a complete harness.’” 

The value of one particular bulb, the Semper Augustus, would be the equivalent of US$ 50,000 at today’s prices! Everyone, from nobles to servants, speculated, cashing in their property and investing in flowers. Capital inflow inundated Holland. “In 1637, came the end.”

In New York, the share price of a company which initiated operations in 1995, has never registered a profit, has (according to management itself) no short-term possibility of doing so either, does not possess any major tangible assets, and has issued a management report in accordance to SEC rules and regulations in which it makes known a series of risks that would make any investor’s hair stand on end, is traded at US$ 200 per share, when it was quoted on the exchange AT US$ 10, only one year ago.

Evidently, the firm described above operates in Internet commerce, sells books and, in my humble opinion,  has joined the rank and files of the “tulipomanias”. In order to arrive at this argument, it is sufficient to analyze some of the risks the firm itself has enumerated in various reports.

The Internet, the Net, or the Web, however you wish to call it, is above else a medium for the transfer of information. In this context, developing technology known as “shopping agents” will permit clients to quickly compare one company’s prices to those of its competition.

This would seem to presage an eventual but fierce price war, an environment that is not exactly the breeding ground for profits that back the market valuation we are observing. 

The low cost of entry and the probability that sooner or later some efforts will be aimed at prohibiting any monopolistic controls of the Web are also factors which can make the advantages created by an early incursion disappear in a flash. 

This has nothing to do with the company itself. All that I’ve read leads me to believe it is well managed and that it probably has a brilliant future. The problem lies solely in the market’s irrational expectations. Today’s market value of the firm, equivalent to the share price times the amount of the shares issued surpasses US$ 33 billion.

Make your own calculations. The firm reported in 1998 total sales of US$ 610 million, a net loss of US$ 124 million and a book value (assets less liabilities) as of 31st of December 1998 of only US$ 139 million. 

Total book sales in the United States during 1998 were worth close to US$ 23 billion. If we assume that a profit margin of 8% would be reasonable, this would mean that there would be US$ 1.8 billion available to reimburse capital invested, both equity as well as debt financing. 

If we then, for the sake of simplicity assume an overall return of 10%, we can estimate the global value of companies that sell books in the United States in the order of US$ 18 billion. 

If the company that's the object of this analysis, and today commands less than 3% of market share eventually attains a whooping 20%, its value could then reach US$ 3.6 billion. 

This is not even remotely close to the market values of US $33 billio I've mentioned earlier.

This Financial Euphoria seems to have infected many firms associated with the Internet, I conclude that this must be a modern version of the speculative Dutch tulips. I also conclude that both these and the real tulips thrive in New York in spring.

From The Daily Journal, Caracas, April 30, 1999

PS. And I gave this article the following introduction in my 2006 book  "Voice and Noise"

My book, Amazon’s profits and the value of its shares

I am including below “Virtual Tulipomania in New York City,” an article that I wrote in April 1999 for the following reasons:

When I started to write this book in 2004, I fretted over having to invest tremendous efforts in getting a publisher interested and, if successful, then having to negotiate lengthily in order to defend my copyright interests. Then I discovered the existence of some new publishing facilities that allow a rookie book writer like me to outsource. As these new facilities print the book “on demand,” there is no need to invest piles of money in printing too many copies that would reflect the author’s general sense of optimism and that could only later end up as tombstones in memory of shattered dreams. Well, it so happens that the new-wave publisher I chose was recently acquired by Amazon and as the article has to do with that company, I also found the perfect excuse to include it … for a very worthy reason … that of shameless self-promotion.

As a financial analyst (which is what an economist frequently does for a living) I am especially proud of this article since it evidences how I managed and dared to question the whole dot.com boom, at its peak, just by doing some thinking on my own. Of course, now, with the profits Amazon should expect from its new investment … and my book, I guess that once again the sky should be the limit for them.

One brief note though about these new “on demand” one-at-a-time printing methods. With them it seems that what we know as “editions” first, second, third, will in fact disappear and this might negatively impact book collectors and rare-book stores. Will they disappear?

Not necessarily, since this method could make collection even more challenging as you could view each individual book as an individual edition and therefore be able to improve your collection by moving up few slots at the time, perhaps from the 12.834th to the 235th edition. Whatever, just in case, you better hedge your bets and rush out and buy a second copy of an early edition of this book. 

Given that it is so easy and inexpensive to make changes to the book by using this publishing system, we could also have an incredible amount of different editions which might make debates about the book much more interesting—in one, I would write in yellow, and in another, in blue, and so I might finally reach the green I am looking for— by seeding confusion. Then rare-book stores would have unlimited access to rarities.

A New English Language Empire

I have often harbored reservations about the possibility of success of the European Union. In particular my worry is about its new currency, the euro, the bases of which I believe are rather weak. I recently heard that there is still much debate going on which, even when new to me, leads me to rethink many of today’s geopolitical aspects.

I refer to the thesis that the United Kingdom is finding it extremely difficult to get used to the idea that it must forgo much of its autonomy in favor of an entity formed by other nations which are geographically close, but still very mystifying, and therefore could possibly abandon the idea altogether, forging instead an alliance with the English speaking world. Among the sponsors of this line of thought, I find the Canadian newspaper owner Conrad Black and the well renowned historian Paul Johnson.

Having observed how much time and effort the UK and the United States spend coordinating their foreign policy and considering how tempting it must be to unite cultures of the same origin that speak the same language and share the same legal system into one global superpower, it should not really be surprising if we were all of a sudden presented with the creation of an English Language Union, or ELU. Considering the recent impact of Shakespeare in Hollywood it might be a lot closer than we think.

The possible implications of a NAFTA expanded to include the UK plus perhaps even other nations such as Australia and New Zealand (both disillusioned by the Asian crisis) lead me to reflect on other issues in addition to the importance of the English language. 

The first issue that occurs to me is that any pact of this sort would effectively wipe out any aspiration Europe may nurture of going head to head with the United States unless it undertakes internal expansion (Russia or its former satellites, maybe?).

Another important thought is the fact that in a globalized and computerized world, geographical proximity seems to be losing its importance. The truth is that once you have incurred the cost of loading merchandise on an airplane or ship, the marginal cost of transporting it a few thousand miles further is not really that great. This could be of importance to Venezuela, especially when it owns so much oil.

The Andean Pact, is basically a commercial agreement with Colombia. This makes a lot of sense if we are trying to create bigger markets with their corresponding economies of scale for our respective industrialists. 

It does not make much sense as far as real complementary economics are concerned.

It is possible that Venezuela, while not abandoning its policy of creating larger markets, should be intensifying its efforts of negotiating commercial agreements with countries very different from itself, in which we can maintain our competitive advantages.

While oil prices remain low, our currency will be sufficiently weak so as to allow industries heavily dependent on labor, such as the textile confection sector to compete with Colombia. Evidently, if oil prices were to spike upwards, the bolívar would become stronger and would make survival of industries such as these difficult, obligating the country to impose protective duties.

If, however, our agreements would be based more on real complementary issues and economics, then it would be possible to create sustainable results. A simple theoretical example would be a negotiation of an commercial agreement with one of the Nordic states, with a wintry climate, allowing them preferential access to our market, with the establishment of the beaches of Margarita as the preferred winter tourist attraction for its citizens. Chile, for one, has made a lot of this, in for instance promoting fruit exports, taking advantage of the fact that their seasons are opposite to those of the Northern Hemisphere.

There is no doubt that we are in a fluid and rapidly changing environment in which it is of extreme importance to be alert to the possibilities that are presented to us. Personally, I feel that Venezuela should not hurry into commercial agreements, simply because it is the thing to do, the flavor of the month. What’s more, with the sole exception of Colombia, with which we share a permeable border which in turn makes the negotiation of agreements a must, I believe Venezuela has not signed one single agreement in which it comes out ahead in practical terms as a country.

Published in The Daily Journal, Caracas, April 1999

PS. Oops! Does Brexit now reignite this alternative? How much should the English language proprietors now charge the remainder EU for the use of it… so as to avoid a war between Germans, French and Spaniards on which should now de facto be its official language? Or will EU go for Esperanto?

Some –isms are still alive and kicking

I recently read an article published in The Daily Journal by a frequent contributor to these pages, Michael Rowan. I do not know Mr. Rowan, but I often envy his capacity for analysis and of expression. The article in question was titled “An End to the Age of Isms”, and it contained a few phrases which compel me to reply.

Specifically, Mr. Rowan wrote: “Yet there are still pockets of resistance to market democracy in the world. There are the nationalists who believe in protectionism and are afraid of globalization, ..... . In those places, one finds the old media, propaganda, hierarchies and also, deeply entrenched poverty. That is their tragedy. The world has passed them by ... . What work is freedom. Freedom in the market .... . For those with the responsibility of writing a new Constitution for Venezuela, this is the truth which can set them, and their country, free at last.”

I cannot agree more with the concept of freedom as expounded by Mr. Rowan in his article. However, when he attempts to segment or divide the world into right and wrong, into those that behave and those that sin, I have no other option as a Venezuelan but to cry “Foul”.

I do not believe there is any reason to, either directly or indirectly, label Venezuela as a country of protectionists afraid of globalization. On the contrary, Venezuela’s borders, both commercial as well as cultural, are among the most permeable and open in the world.

There are no limits as to what goods and services can be imported into the country. On top of this, the limited duties imposed are more than often not even paid at the ports of entry. In addition, few could question the eagerness and openness with which Venezuelans accept any type of external influence.

Champagne is charged a duty of 26%, quasi-monopolistic services such as those of international auditors and law firms are marketed with ease, patent and intellectual property right agreements are applied quickly, as in the case of laboratories, and finally, our early morning radio broadcasts allow us to hear all types of debate about matters typical of the globalized world such as oral sex.

What does Venezuela obtain in return for this extraordinarily good behavior as a citizen of the globalized world?

We know very well that the worth of something is what the consumer is willing to ultimately pay for it. Today, for each 100 units a European consumer pays for a tank of gasoline, the producer of the latter receives 10 units, the distributor 5 units and the taxman of the country it is pumped in receives 85 units. The fact that the taxman receives 85 units and the producer only 10 units means they are applying an effective commercial duty or tax of 850%. The experts, very able at managing the percentages in order to defend their interests, frequently refer to taxes on oil as being “only 85%” and never as a duty on the product. 

If, for example, we were talking about a Mercedes Benz which goes for US$ 100,000, I am sure Daimler Benz would not be talking about “only 85%” if this sale would be broken down into a sales commission of US$ 5,000, a payment to the manufacturer of US$ 10,000 and a transfer to the taxman of US$ 85,000.

It is not true that prices of oil are low, since for the consumer the prices have never been as high. Our only problem as a producing nation is that on the income side, we have never received less. The taxmen in the consumer nations receive more, a lot more, income from each barrel of oil commercialized than the producer of the same.

This is what Venezuela got. A system of free trade that only pays it a meager 10% of the value of the non-renewable asset that it liquidates. Just like any Little Red Riding Hood, we readily swallow the stories about the freedom of markets when in reality they hide the evil, bad wolf of protectionism, environmentalism and fiscalism, three “isms” that are very much alive and kicking, thank you!

I agree in no uncertain terms with Mr. Rowan that the Constituent Assembly has much work to do, but in my wish list I have not included his recommendations with regards to increased global aperture. My rather long wish list includes, for example, ensuring that the citizens of the country can access adequate information pertaining to the government’s management of its affairs, more effective limitations on new public indebtedness and finally (something inspired by Mr. Rowan) the banning of ingenuousness as a basis for our commercial policies.

https://petropolitan.blogspot.com/1999/04/some-isms-are-still-alive-and-kicking.html

The telecom ombudsman

As we rapidly approach the next millennium, there is no doubt that the Internet world with all its communication, information and commerce facets, will most surely evolve into one of the most important elements in the development of any country. The way we can take advantage of it will depend on how it is commercially regulated.

In Venezuela we are at a crossroads. Either we allow access to the Internet to be the main business, to the benefit of the telecommunication companies and the national government who ultimately issues the corresponding concessions, or we allow the users, our children and future entrepreneurs to capitalize on the opportunities by way of free and cheap access.

Recent efforts at privatization seem to not have favored the end users of the services. 

CANTV was sold on the basis that it generated high income for the Nation and expectations of high returns for the investors. Evidently, the only outcome of this equation are high tariffs. Likewise, Margarita knows more than well that the price to be paid for success in the sale of its power sector is just that, high tariffs.

The State, due to conflicts of interests, frequently cannot adequately manage its role as representative or defender of the public’s rights, as in this case, those of the end users. It is precisely because of this that all around the world, the figure of the Ombudsman becomes important. 

The Ombudsman is an independent, capable and responsible person. Adequately provided with the resources necessary to fulfill his role, he dedicates his time to the users interest.

One prime example of this is the TIO in Australia. Its initials come from the words Telecommunications, Industry and Ombudsman and it is an independent entity established in 1993 to help solve disputes between the telecommunications companies and the small users both residential and commercial. As of 1997 it has also been entrusted the processing of complaints about Internet services.

TIO’s service is free, but it only intervenes after the user has initially tried to solve its disputes directly with the purveyor of the service. It’s authority includes the investigation of matters relative to billing, service cuts, mobile service, access to the Internet, privacy, operator and directory assistance, public phones and basic telephone service.

Today TIO processes about 1,200 complaints per week. Approximately 95% of these cases are solved within 48 hours and only 0.05% of these end up in court. As do most arbitrage processes, the TIO does not analyze cases from a strictly legalistic viewpoint but rather on the base of merit and reasonability.

The costs incurred by TIO are covered by all of the telecommunications companies depending on the number of complaints raised against them.

In spite of all this success, however, and to the detriment of all Australian users, aspects related to tariffs are unfortunately out of TIO’s jurisdiction. 

I am convinced that in order to truly comply with his role of defender of the rights of the users of public services, the Ombudsman must be involved in the process of establishment of tariffs. Evidently, this role in tariff fixation must be based on reasonability, and not on the blocking of tariff increases which are necessary in order to continue to guarantee an adequate service.

How wonderful it would be to see the incorporation of the figure of the Ombudsman of Telecommunications to help with our own privatization efforts. He could most certainly help insure that the awarding of concessions does not result in a penalty for future users. 

Likewise, his support of the inclusion of norms and regulations in the concession agreements that would guarantee a good level of service as of day one would save us a lot of the grief we are shouldering today.

An Ombudsman would be most welcome in what has up to now been a negotiated process strictly between telecommunications companies and the nation. If the players do not accept this, we should require it of the Constituent Assembly.

In closing, I remind the users of cellular phone services in Venezuela, that tariffs in Israel, for example, are 10 times lower than theirs. The explanation? In Israel, the concessions were awarded to those operators who offered to install the most lines and the lowest tariffs. In Venezuela the concessions are awarded to those that offer the best deal for the taxman.

Seeking allies against oil taxes

In Europe, as well as in many other parts of the world, the price of gasoline is somewhere around US$ 1.25 per liter (Bs. 750 at current exchange rates). This is five times what a liter goes for at gasoline stations in the United States. This sky-high price is the simple result of applying what effectively is a commercial duty and which I have roughly calculated at about 800%. 

This duty, basically imposed by means of a gasoline tax, is the main reason oil producers today are obtaining such poor results. The 800% duty, besides naturally reducing demand for oil, also generates a totally unjust distribution of income. The producer of the very valuable and non-renewable resource of oil receives less than 10% of what the consumer pays at the pump.

It might only get worse. A European government recently announced a fiscal policy that implies raising these taxes on gasoline by 6% over annual inflation, thereby effectively duplicating them by the year 2007. There is no doubt in my mind as to the danger this implies for countries such as ours. How much more will demand be depressed if the plan is to charge US$ 2.50 per liter?

It is evident that the degree of development of a country is to a great extent a function of how they defend their own interests. As an example today we observe the United States threatening to impose duties of 100% on Europe as a result of a dispute over bananas, a fruit neither one of them cultivates. In this sense, and faced with the surprising silence both of our own oil industry as well as of the rest of the world, I will try do my part by a small campaign aimed at informing the public in general about this abusive tax-duty on gasoline.

What can be done? The answer to this question should be, before anything else, to inform. It is very probable that many of the affected parties that today are unaware of this problem could, once properly informed, become powerful allies. The following comments are aimed at exactly that.

Today’s strategy of defending prices is based on production cuts, which requires a heavy dose of sacrifice for producing nations and creates divisions and disputes across the board. On the other hand, a well-aimed protest against elevated taxes on gasoline could serve to unify all oil producers, OPEC and non-OPEC.

In the United States there are a great many individuals, owners of oil wells, who would form a pressure group with much more power than shareholders of fruit companies once they understand that the main reason for their diminished royalties is the gasoline tax.

Likewise, we must analyze how and to what degree these high gasoline prices, caused by these high taxes, are putting the brakes on the growth of the global economy. A decrease in gasoline prices could have a very positive impact, for instance creating jobs in the service sector, where Europe clearly lags USA. 

We must also put to rest the fears of environmentalists. Our joint action is aimed at obtaining a just distribution of income, not to provoke irresponsible consumption. Also if it results in more economic growth and if adequately channeled, this could avoid ecological disasters of much greater impact than those that could result from a simple increase in gasoline consumption. Let us not forget that Chernobyl and fires in the Amazon are events very closely related to poverty.

Just simply raising the issue of gasoline taxes being duties in disguise allows us to redefine the relationships with a series of international entities. For example, one could question the bases on which entities such as the World Trade Organization leans heavily on Venezuela and other countries, to reduce their trade barriers while they simultaneously keep absolutely silent about the tariffs imposed on gasoline. 

In the same sense, we could question the International Monetary Fund’s recipe calling for the increase in gasoline prices and taxes. This is totally opposed to free and open markets, and in our case certainly helps to aggravate our balance of payment problems even further.

As always, I wish to make it perfectly clear that my position on this subject is not an effort to find an excuse for the deplorable economic situation we are going through in this country. That responsibility is ours, and only ours. Nonetheless, one of the aspects we must necessarily rectify is our miserable capacity to unite the nation behind a concerted effort to defend our interests.

If we don’t defend our oil, what else is there to defend?

Of mangoes and bananas

For several reasons, the debate about the global economy has recently reminded me of fruit. The wise Henri Pitier wrote his Manual about Common Plants in Venezuela in 1926. In it he wrote the following about the mango:

"It is harvested in abundance, and there are many who, during the season in which they are ripe, dedicate all of their time to the search for this fruit which for some time then becomes their only source of nourishment, very often to the detriment of their health. One can vacillate, then, on deciding whether the introduction of this tree [from Asia] has been a blessing or a curse. The writer of these words is inclined to believe the latter since the mango leads to idleness, to the invasion of another’s property and to vagrancy; additionally, no matter how good or healthy it may be, when ingested in moderation, it sometimes provokes digestive disorders and is far from being wholesome food. It alters, then, both morality as well as public health." 

This interesting quotation shows us that, in addition to oil, the mango should be classified high on the list of culprits that have been the cause of our poor economic development. Most assuredly, in addition to the mango and oil, we must also add to this list the sun, the beaches and all those variables that undoubtedly make it easier to survive an economic recession in a tropical Caracas than in a wintry Moscow.

Since it seems evident that the simplicity of living in the tropics leads to laziness while the hardship of winter promotes the discipline and work ethics that have ultimately inspired today’s global economic development, it behooves us to view global warming with renewed preoccupation and from a totally new angle.

I belong to a group that is identified in Venezuela as Contemporary Adults (sounds better than middle-aged). This implies being up-to-date with current issues such as the environment. I have, with certain frequency made own individual observations about the evolution of global warming. Every Carnival weekend, for example, I stroll out to the beach in Margarita, the tropical Venezuelan island in the Caribbean Sea, in my most casual, monarchic pace, and with all seriousness and responsibility, take note of the width of the shore from the water line to the roadway. Even when I had terrible difficulty in finding a spot in which to anchor my garishly multicolored beach umbrella, I never really worried about it. I simply attributed this difficulty to the increased popularity of the island and not to an invasion by the oceans.

Today, however, I harbor serious doubts as to the validity of my method of measurement. Wherever I look I find evidence of the advanced state of warming in the world.

How else, other than by assuming a certain displacement toward the north of the geographical boundary of the Banana Republics, can we explain the opposite positions sustained by superpowers like Europe and the United States on the issue of bananas, as if they were some modern versions of Lilliput and Blefuscu.[i]

How else, other that by assuming the creation of climatic conditions conducive to the cultivation of mangos, can we understand why Japan has not been able to combat idleness and stimulate the reactivation of its economy? We have all read that Japan has reduced interest rates to an annual rate of one per one thousand. Can you imagine how impressed a botanist like Henri Pitier would be upon observing this unique specimen of a mango?

[i]PS. The current enormous fiscal and commercial deficits of the North might also lend further credibility to the thesis of the displacement of the parallel of the Banana Republics. 

From The Daily Journal, Caracas, March 12, 1999

What the world needs now… [is growth sweet growth]

The United States of America is the only economic engine that keeps today’s low world growth rates from degenerating into a horrible global depression. It is no wonder, then, that all eyes are on this country’s economic performance. 

Actual consensus, based on a fiscal surplus, a very low unemployment rate and a basically non-existent inflation rate, implies that this performance is nothing short of spectacular. For those who still doubt, it should be enough to simply analyze the incredibly high acceptance rating garnered by President Clinton in spite of events which in other times, due to their nature, would most probably have resulted in his impeachment.

I would classify all other nations in two broad groups. The first group consists of those countries that have lost the international market’s confidence and who reluctantly or not must accept traditional Monetary Fund style recipes such as the reduction of fiscal deficits and increases in interest rates. 

The second group includes those that still can count on basic strengths. Japan, for example, is one of these. Apart from lowering interest rates to their minimum expression, they dabble (albeit sometimes timidly) with Keynesian measures such as the issue of consumer coupons.

Confusion basically exists only in Europe. There is still much discussion between the European Central Bank, wishing to prove its orthodoxy in the face of the birth of the Euro, and the individual governments, anxious to get their economies back on the road of growth.

You may ask why, as a local columnist, I am writing about the world economy. There are two basic reasons. The first is that Venezuela is a living example that helps us to remember what happened during those times when each country tried to put its house in order individualistically. The accumulated global result was worldwide economic contraction. By striving to adopt measures gleaned from the manual of good economic behavior, our country slowly managed to go from a state of obesity to one of severe economic anorexia, a condition which makes it impossible for companies to pay adequate salaries and for those who receive this meager pay to purchase goods or services from those same companies. The world should pay attention so it can avoid going the same route.

The second reason is simply the need to alert anyone who will listen as to the fact that it is absolutely necessary for Venezuela and the world in general to get back on the track of international growth. In Venezuela’s case, the situation is obvious. Either we grow or we disappear. Simple as that! It is slightly more difficult to perceive the urgency of the situation globally, except for those countries that, like Venezuela, have had serious problems with their debt load.

I am under the impression that due to the abundance of bad news generated by the world today, which in turn promotes belief in wonderful saintly Superman-like saviors, markets have blithely been ignoring the increasingly nettlesome problem of the United States’ commercial deficit. Please do not confuse the message with the messenger. I don’t wish to stoke the fire, but I do wish to remind everyone that this country’s commercial deficit boils down to a whopping US$ 1 billion per day.

Since the United States’ public sector maintains that it’s budget is in the black, the only economic counterbalance to the above mentioned commercial deficit is the private sector’s indebtedness. In other words, the fuel that today’s economic engine has been using to continue on its most opportune buying binge, in the best “its cheap, give me two” tradition, is the funding that the rest of the world pumps into its tank. In Venezuela, we can safely testify to the fact that this source of energy does not last forever.

There is only one way that the world will survive this problem relatively unscathed. It must simply begin to grow again before the problem begins to cause strong increases in dollar interest rates, driven either by the United States’ need to curb its growth rate, contain internal inflationary pressures and control its commercial deficits, or by an international market that will slowly but surely loose its confidence in the dollar’s future.

To grow! So easy to say, but so difficult to actually do. Above all else, however, I believe it is the result of mental attitude. 

Amongst friends I have often said that when citizens of the United States decide to buy goods and services from one another and go out for dinner every evening, the consequence is growth. When Europeans, in a steadfast show of responsibility in the face of hardship decide to stay home, the result is contraction.

Simply put, what Venezuela and world urgently needs, is leadership that knows how to stimulate growth sweet growth.

A nation guilty of innocence

In a European country (it does not really matter which, since in this sense they are pretty much alike), out of every U.S.$100 that a motorist spends on gasoline, $85 goes towards taxes, $5 to cover the cost of distribution and $10 or less to pay for the refined product itself. In other words, the amount that a country will be paid in order to extract this non-renewable resource is actually peanuts.

The 85% that goes to the European taxman is just a simple duty. In normal markets, a fall in oil prices of about 55% should technically result in an increase in consumption. In Europe, however, gasoline prices remain basically the same. 

This means that the tax authorities simply took advantage of the above-mentioned fall in prices to simply increase their collections.

I am among those that believe that the solutions to Venezuela’s current financial crisis will require much more than a simple increase in oil prices. Among other things, I feel it is necessary to develop a real national conscience which will allows us to properly defend our own interests. Ironically, I don’t see any other place to begin but with our own oil.

Had Venezuela properly invested the resources obtained during the oil boom, it would definitely been in a better financial position. There is no doubt that Venezuela’s crime was to spend and give away excessively. An example of this excess is that the overspending did not only include oil income but indebtedness as well.

However, neither the excess generosity described above, even if it borders on stupidity, nor the country’s masochistic streak (nobody can deny that our problems are self-inflicted) should result in the loss of fair and respectful treatment from the rest of the world.

Because of this, it angers me no end that in spite of the fact that Venezuela is suffering due to low oil prices, the country is not being offered other alternatives to restructure its debt than that of suicide by way of the ingestion of 20-year credits at 20 percent interest per annum available in the marginal emerging market.

The taxes imposed by Europe on gasoline, the prohibition on Orimulsion imposed by Florida, and finally, the usurious demands made by the financial markets are sufficient evidence to prove that, even if it seems like a contradiction in terms and even when globalization continues to steam along, it is up to every man to look out for himself.

When we also note that the developed world spends huge amount of resources to co-opt those that ‘misbehave’, logic would seem to imply that one simply has to play hardball.

It would seem to me that something like a suspension of landing rights in Venezuela for flights from Florida as a response to that state’s continued imposition of its ban on Orimulsion simply in order to favor some particular local interests would be a fairly civilized level of roughness, specially when compared to what is going on in, for example, Kosovo. 

It would seem to me that something like a special duty imposed by Venezuela (preferably backed by OPEC) on all products coming from countries that locally apply a direct tax on oil products is neither worse nor different than all the conflicts being debated today in the international commercial system.

It seem to me that we would not be asking too much from the United States if we propose to restructure all of our external debt on 30-year terms at an interest rate of 0.5% over Treasury Rates to be repaid in advance if and when the price of oil goes over US$ 30 per barrel, especially if we consider the expense the USA undertakes in order to build its strategic oil reserves by burying them in underground deposits or in militarily guaranteeing access to other strategically important areas, and if we consider that after such a restructure, Venezuela, with a fairly small debt, would immediately merit a much better credit rating than many of the other countries, currently favored by the markets.

Hunger is a violation of human rights. In my country innocent people are suffering from hunger, most of them as a direct result of populism. The battle against internal populism, however, often results in falling into the trap of innocently accepting imposed external economic populism, more often than not resulting in more hunger. It is high time Venezuela defends its own interests by not consistently bending over backwards.

A comparative look at Venezuela, Honduras

I have just returned from a few days of work in Honduras, which as everyone knows has been ravaged by Hurricane Mitch. During this trip I had the chance to jot down some observations about our own country.

On volunteerism: I saw young men and women of the Peace Corp arriving at the airport in Honduras, ready to cooperate as best they can by helping poor communities combat hunger, educate their children and fight AIDS among many other things. These young North Americans, all graduated, will work in a strange country for two years without remuneration of any sort and under immensely difficult circumstances given the comfort they leave behind at home.

In Venezuela, on the other hand, we have had to set aside a budget of Bs. 2.4 billion to entice our local “volunteers” to come forward to supervise what is to be an event of immense import for our country, i.e. the referendum calling for its own Constituent Assembly. 

When I think that our heroes of independence sacrificed their lives I can’t help but feel that it is a sad state of affairs when today we cannot even contemplate giving away one free day for our country.

On the evidence of crisis: I had the opportunity to visit many public offices in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, in which I found that most officials had to work in truly uncomfortable conditions in any small space or cubby-hole they we able to find.

God knows it is not my purpose to compare a crisis such as the financial one we are going through in Venezuela with the type of emergency, misery and loss of human life that nature has saddled Honduras with. In spite of this, I cannot help observing that in Venezuela, in which the financial crisis also created economic conditions that in turn created hunger (much of it due to the mishandling of the situation), many of the public offices today work in brand new offices which were recuperated during and after the collapse of the banking system, like the spoils of a war.

On information about the administration of government: I also had the chance of reviewing the Management Information System which allows Minister Manuel Zelaya Rosales, President of the Honduran Social Investment Fund (FIHS) to have exact information, day after day, about all the projects being undertaken by his office.

According to the information I have, the portable computer carried by the Minister wherever he goes contains information on at least 1,000 projects, schools, bridges, etc. that are currently under construction. 

On top of this, there is historical information about over 5,000 finished projects. 

The cost of a similar system is not very high today. Since the capture of the original information occurs only once and the system serves multiple purposes such as control, accounting, statistics, etc., it also has the potential of providing great operational savings.

In contrast, I recently read in the local press in Venezuela that it is impossible to find actual and up to date information as to how many employees are on the public payroll today. 

Having seen how the FIHS system works in Honduras, the only thing I can think of is that this level of information should be absolutely obligatory in any democracy worth its salt. One of the principal innovations our Constituent Assembly should produce is the right to total and instantaneous information about our government, something technically quite feasible today.

On gas stations: One clear coincidence between the two countries is the existence of a great number of sparkling new gasoline stations that offer, one way or another, to satisfy the consumers’ other needs. 

It is difficult for me to understand and accept that countries such as ours, with unattended basic needs such as food, education, health, transportation, water, electricity, etc., can develop models of economic development which offer this type of infrastructure as “evidence” of their success and potential.

I can perfectly understand that some of the up-scale neighborhoods have luxury gasoline stations for those who can and wish to pay more for service. Nobody can convince me that the recent epidemic in investment in gasoline stations responds to local free market decisions. 

“Someone’s” hand is manipulating the market in the name of free markets, and that must and will be paid for. For the moment, it seems that PDVSA will have to pay a part of the requirements for subsidies it has itself created.