Sunday, November 30, 2025

Grok: What's the impact of billionaires in the costs of basic necessities?

I asked Grok: 

"How much do billionaires increase the cost of housing, health care, childcare, food, transportation and other basic necessities?"

 

Grok answered:

 

"Billionaires have a small, mostly localized impact on the cost of housing through direct purchases or investments, and negligible direct effects on health care, childcare, food, transportation, or most other basic necessities. 


There are only about 800–900 billionaires in the U.S., with collective wealth around $5–7 trillion, but their personal spending and home ownership represent a tiny fraction of the $50+ trillion U.S. economy and 140+ million housing units. 


Their influence is often overstated in political discourse, while bigger drivers include supply restrictions, labor costs, regulations, corporate consolidation, and global factors.


Housing


This is the only area with credible evidence of some upward pressure from ultra-wealthy buyers and billionaire-linked investors.


Individual billionaires' purchases of luxury or multiple homes can dramatically inflate values in specific high-end or resort areas.


Billionaire-backed institutional investors (e.g., private equity firms like Blackstone) buy single-family homes for rentals). Studies show mixed impacts:


Some find they raise rents faster (e.g., 60% higher initial increases than average) or contribute to price/rent growth of a few percent in heavy-buying areas.


Others conclude they increase rental supply, potentially lowering rents overall, or have minimal net effect.

Post-2008 crisis, they may have added to price/rent increases, but estimates are modest (e.g., 1–5% nationally or in affected markets).


Overall quantitative impact on national housing costs: Low single-digit percentage at most, and highly localized. Main drivers of unaffordability are zoning laws/NIMBYism restricting new builds, high construction costs, and demand from population growth/immigration — not billionaires.

 

Health Care

 

No meaningful direct impact. U.S. health care costs (~$4–5 trillion annually) are driven by:

 

Fragmented insurance systems

Administrative bloat

Pharma pricing

Provider consolidation

Aging population

 

Some billionaires own stakes in health companies (e.g., via investments), but their personal usage (private concierge medicine) doesn't strain the system. Costs have risen due to Baumol's cost disease (labor-intensive services don't productivity-boost like manufacturing). No studies link billionaires' existence to higher premiums or out-of-pocket costs.

 

Childcare

 

Negligible impact. Costs (~$10K–20K+ per child/year) stem from:


Labor intensity (low wages, high staff ratios)

Regulations

Lack of public funding

Billionaires hire private nannies or use elite services, but this doesn't affect average daycare prices. Again, Baumol's effect dominates.

 

Food


Virtually zero impact. Food prices are influenced by:


Supply chains

Energy costs

Weather

Corporate consolidation in agriculture/processing

Billionaires' grocery or dining habits are a rounding error in a $1+ trillion market.

 

Transportation

 

No significant effect. Gas, cars, and transit costs depend on:


Global oil markets

Supply chains

Infrastructure funding

Private jets or yachts don't move the needle for public gas prices (~$3–4/gallon) or car costs.

 

Broader Context

 

Indirect effects via wealth concentration are debated: some argue billionaires' political influence (lobbying, donations) helps maintain policies favoring low taxes on the rich or deregulation, limiting public investment in affordable housing/healthcare. Others point to corporate profit-taking (e.g., ~10–20% of recent inflation from margins) or untaxed wealth transfers reducing government revenue. 

 

However, these are systemic inequality issues, not direct "billionaires bidding up necessities.

"Claims that billionaires are a primary cause of cost-of-living crises often come from advocacy groups (e.g., Oxfam, Institute for Policy Studies) and lack strong causal data for most categories. 

Evidence shows their role is marginal compared to policy failures like underbuilding housing (~5–7 million unit shortage) or health system inefficiencies.

 

In short, billionaires aren't "making life unaffordable" in a major quantifiable way for basics — the impact is mostly a few percent in select housing markets at worst, and near-zero elsewhere. 

Fixing supply-side barriers (e.g., more building, cost controls) would do far more than targeting billionaires.

 

I said: Thanks!

 

It replied: You're welcome! Glad I could help. If you have more questions, just ask.

 

Thursday, November 20, 2025

Do all want affordable homes? No! Some millions of homeowners could think that's not in their best interest.

Every day we read about the need of affordable homes. And the desired promise of it, is exploited by politicians in many ways shapes or forms. 

E.g., recently I read in Financial Times that Zohran Mamdani, in 2020, told a reporter, “What I’ve seen in my work is, it’s not tenant versus homeowner.” The affordability crisis is, rather, “tenant and homeowner versus financial speculator and investment bank portfolio”. Really?

Just ask the approximately 86 million U.S. homeowners, representing a homeownership rate of approximately 65 percent, what they think of their piggy banks turning “affordable”. (November 2024, Donald Trump won with little more that 77 million votes)

2028 I wrote in Washington Post: “Do we want affordable homes or houses as investment assets? There’s no easy answer, because going back to just homes would also cause immense suffering for all those believing they have, with their houses, built up a safety net.”

The challenge that described remains valid. Just imagine a politician during a special interest rally offering a tempting: 

“In the quest for Affordable Homes, I promise to minimize as much as possible the sufferings that could cause to you who already own a home.” To top it up he could add: “I promise to help you leave as much as possible to those you want to inherit you, for those you have built up a mountain, or at least a little hill.” 

And that during that rally, the attendants would hear, over and over again, Peter, Paul and Mary singing “The House Song” and giving it perhaps a whole new meaning.

I believe that to be able to bridge the so dissimilar and emotional laden interests between house buyers and home owners, in a reasonably amiable way, without too many tears, the best way, the only way, is by fully understanding how we got here. Why that’s not discussed, Ill’ leave to you.

Since the 1990’s regulators decided that banks needed to hold more capital against risky loans to small businesses and entrepreneurs than against “safe” residential mortgages. What had to happen? More financing of houses and less of that which can help create the job incomes people need to afford buying houses. 

If you do not want to take my word for it, read the answer ChatGPT and Grok gave when dialoguing with them on this issue. A Nobel Prize winner in Economic Sciences should of course have been able to understand that and alerted us. Sadly, truth be told, none of these laurates ever did.

Who’s going to help avoid a class war among house buyers and home owners from degenerating into an undeclared civil war conflict? The US Congress? 

No wonder the attendance to churches is reported to have increased.