Friday, February 26, 1999

A nation guilty of innocence

In a European country (it does not really matter which it is since in this sense they are pretty much alike), out of every U.S.$100 that a motorist spends on gasoline, $85 goes towards taxes, $5 to cover the cost of distribution and $10 or less to pay for the refined product itself. In other words, the amount that a country will be paid in order to extract this non-renewable resource is actually peanuts.

The 85% that goes to the European taxman is nothing other than a simple duty. In normal markets, a fall in oil prices of about 55% should technically result in an increase in consumption. In Europe, however, gasoline prices remain basically the same. This means that the tax authorities simply took advantage of the above-mentioned fall in prices to simply increase their collections.

I am among those that believe that the solutions to Venezuela’s current financial crisis will require much more than a simple increase in oil prices. Among other things, I feel it is necessary to develop a real national conscience which will allows us to properly defend our own interests. Ironically, I don’t see any other place to begin but with our own oil.

Should Venezuela have properly invested the resources obtained during the oil boom, it would definitely been in a better financial position. However, should it not have recycled this income it would have simply aggravated the global recession and would have been considered a pariah. There is no doubt that Venezuela’s crime was to spend and give away excessively. An example of this excess is that the overspending did not only include oil income but indebtedness as well.

However, neither the excess generosity described above, even if it borders on stupidity, nor the country’s masochistic streak (nobody can deny that our problems are self-inflicted) should result in the loss of fair and respectful treatment from the rest of the world.

Because of this, it angers me no end that in spite of the fact that Venezuela is suffering due to low oil prices, the country is not being offered other alternatives to restructure its debt other that suicide by way of the ingestion of 20-year credits at 20 percent interest per annum available in the marginal emerging market.

The taxes imposed by Europe on gasoline (while they also promote free markets), the prohibition on Orimulsion imposed by Florida (the entity that benefits the most due to its attraction for Venezuelans), and finally, the usurious demands made by the financial markets are sufficient evidence to prove that, even if it seems like a contradiction in terms and even when globalization continues to steam along, it is basically up to every man to look out for himself.

When we also note that the developed world spends huge amount of resources to co-opt those that ‘misbehave’, logic would seem to imply that one simply has to play hardball.

It would seem to me that something like a suspension of landing rights in Venezuela for flights from Florida as a response to that state’s continued imposition of its ban on Orimulsion simply in order to favor some particular local interests, is a fairly civilized level of roughness, specially when compared to what is going on in, for example, Kosovo. 

It would seem to me that something like a special duty imposed by Venezuela (preferably backed by OPEC) on all products coming from countries that locally apply a direct tax on oil products is neither worse nor different than all the conflicts being debated today in the international commercial system.

It would seem to me that we would not be asking too much from the United States if we propose to restructure all of our external debt on 30-year terms at an interest rate of 0.5% over Treasury Rates to be repaid in advance if and when the price of oil goes over US$ 30 per barrel. Especially if we consider the expense the USA undertakes in order to build its strategic oil reserves by burying them in underground deposits or in militarily guaranteeing access to other strategically important areas. Especially if we consider that after such a restructure, Venezuela, with a fairly small debt, would immediately merit a much better credit rating than many of the other countries, currently favored by the markets.

Hunger is a violation of human rights. In my country innocent people are suffering from hunger, most of them as a direct result of populism. The battle against internal populism, however, often results in falling into the trap of innocently accepting imposed external economic populism, more often than not resulting in more hunger. It is high time Venezuela defends its own interests by not consistently bending over backwards.




Thursday, February 04, 1999

A comparative look at Venezuela, Honduras

I have just returned from a few days of work in Honduras, which as everyone knows has been ravaged by Hurricane Mitch. During this trip I had the chance to jot down some observations about our own country.

On volunteerism: I saw young men and women of the Peace Corp arriving at the airport in Honduras, ready to cooperate as best they can by helping poor communities combat hunger, educate their children and fight AIDS among many other things. These young North Americans, all graduated, will work in a strange country for two years without remuneration of any sort and under immensely difficult circumstances given the comfort they leave behind at home.

In Venezuela, on the other hand, we have had to set aside a budget of Bs. 2.4 billion to entice our local “volunteers” to come forward to supervise what is to be an event of immense import for our country, i.e. the referendum calling for its own Constituent Assembly. When I think that our heroes of independence sacrificed their lives I can’t help but feel that it is a sad state of affairs when today we cannot even contemplate giving away one free day for our country.

On the evidence of crisis: I had the opportunity to visit many public offices in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, in which I found that most officials had to work in truly uncomfortable conditions in any small space or cubby-hole they we able to find.

God knows it is not my purpose to compare a crisis such as the financial one we are going through in Venezuela with the type of emergency, misery and loss of human life that nature has saddled Honduras with. In spite of this, I cannot help observing that in Venezuela, in which the financial crisis also created economic conditions that in turn created hunger (much of it due to the mishandling of the situation), many of the public offices today work in brand new offices which were recuperated during and after the collapse of the banking system like the spoils of a war.

On information about the administration of government: I also had the chance of reviewing the Management Information System which allows Minister Manuel Zelaya Rosales, President of the Honduran Social Investment Fund (FIHS) to have exact information, day after day, about all the projects being undertaken by his office. According to the information I have, the portable computer carried by the Minister wherever he goes contains information on at least 1,000 projects, schools, bridges, etc. that are currently under construction. On top of this, there is historical information about over 5,000 finished projects. The cost of a similar system is not very high today. Since the capture of the original information occurs only once and the system serves multiple purposes such as control, accounting, statistics, etc., it also has the potential of providing great operational savings.

In contrast, I recently read in the local press in Venezuela that it is impossible to find actual and up to date information as to how many employees are on the public payroll today. Having seen how the FIHS system works in Honduras, the only thing I can think of is that this level of information should be absolutely obligatory in any democracy worth its salt. One of the principal innovations our Constituent Assembly should produce is the right to total and instantaneous information about our government, something technically quite feasible today.

On gasoline stations: One clear coincidence between the two countries is the existence of a great number of sparkling new gasoline stations that offer, one way or another, to satisfy the consumers’ other needs. It is difficult for me to understand and accept that countries such as ours, with unattended basic needs such as food, education, health, transportation, water, electricity, etc., can develop models of economic development which offer this type of infrastructure as “evidence” of their success and potential.

I can perfectly understand that some of the up-scale neighborhoods have luxury gasoline stations for those who can and wish to pay more for service. Nobody can convince me that the recent epidemic in investment in gasoline stations responds to local free market decisions. “Someone’s” hand is manipulating the market in the name of free markets, and that must and will be paid for. For the moment, it seems that PDVSA will have to pay a part of the requirements for subsidies it has itself created.